Mumbai rains today: Parts of Maximum City, neighbouring areas witness light showers after brief lull

Data furnished by the BMC showed that between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, the city’s suburbs received an average of 2 mm rainfall while the island city division recorded 0.91 mm rainfall. During the day, the IMD’s Santacruz observatory received scattered spells of rainfall but it was too little to be registered on the recording scales.

Earlier, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted moderate showers from Saturday, July 18. Wednesday’s spells of showers nudged the weather department to upgrade its forecast bulletin and sound a yellow warning in Mumbai, Thane and Palghar, predicting possibility of light to moderate rainfall coupled with thunderstorms and gusty winds touching the speed of 30 – 40 kmph.

‘No rain in Mumbai on Thursday’

The region is not likely to receive any rain on Thursday, July 16 and the rain activity is expected to increase between July 20-21.

“While there may be some isolated spells, heavy rainfall will continue to elude Mumbai and adjoining areas. Between July 20 and 21, there may be some increase in rain activity due to another developing system but the intensity will remain low,” Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather Services told The Indian Express.

Meteorologists attributed the resurgence in rain activity to a prevailing cyclonic circulation over north Gujarat and adjoining southwest Rajasthan. Mahesh Palawat said, “Owing to the cyclonic circulation and southwesterly winds over Goa, there has been enhancement of moisture inducing winds and light rainfall have swept the region.”

Why did rain in Mumbai stop?

Despite the current dry spell, Mumbai has already received 1,147 mm of rain this July, which is well above the city’s average July rainfall of around 920 mm in the suburbs. After the intense rainfall between July 1 and July 8, rain activity has reduced sharply, with both the island city and suburban observatories recording 0 mm rainfall between Sunday and Tuesday morning.

According to meteorologists, the current lull is the result of multiple weather factors coming together, including a monsoon break, the absence of active weather systems and the influence of El Niño.

Athreya Shetty, an independent weather forecaster, told The Indian Express that El Niño, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and dry winds from Central Asia are suppressing cloud formation over the region. “El Niño as well as the MJO have essentially suppressed any kind of cloud formation at the moment. Besides this, we are also receiving a lot of dry winds from Central Asia,” Shetty said.

Meteorologists also attributed the dry spell to the absence of active monsoon systems such as cyclonic circulations and troughs, which normally draw moisture over the region and trigger widespread rainfall.

Will Mumbai see another spell of heavy rain?

For now, weather experts do not expect a repeat of the intense rainfall recorded during the first week of July. While moderate showers are likely to return over the weekend, no heavy rainfall has been forecast for Mumbai until the end of July.