While conditions are favourable in northern parts of India for withdrawal of southwest monsoon, the state is expecting another spell of rain, Met department officials said. With one spell of rain this week and another the coming week, the officials said withdrawal will not take place before October 7.
“The usual date is October 1 and with some local convection, we expect rains in the next 48 hours. With low pressure in the Bay of Bengal, there is likely to be a spell on October 6-7 as well. So we can safely say the withdrawal of rains will not happen before October 7. Post these rains, we would observe and declare the withdrawal,” said Met officials.
The Met department said it would rain in central parts of the state. The state currently is at 28 per cent deficiency as per statistics given by the Met department on Monday. While Konkan and Goa division faces a 31 per cent deficiency, Madhya Maharashtra faces a 32 per cent deficiency while Marathwada faces 39 per cent and Vidarbha with some good spell of rain in the last weeks recorded a reduced deficiency of 11 per cent.
“The spell of rain will not drastically improve the situation as deficiency is bound to be there. However, catchment areas will get some rain which will help in improving water levels,” said the official.
In Pune region, the rainfall deficiency went up to 82.4 mm till September 28 recording 471.6 mm against the average of 556.3 mm from June to September. Officials said data available for the last 45 years have been seen in deficient rainfall. “There have been several years which recorded less rainfall. The lowest was in 1972 recording 297 mm rainfall (-259.3 mm) and the remaining are 2012 (367 mm), 1987 (380 mm), 1970 (336 mm), 2001 (373 mm) and 1985 (352 mm),” stated met officials.
While deficiency across the country is 14 per cent, East and North East areas show a deficiency of 8 per cent, north west areas 12 per cent, central parts 16 per cent and southern parts the Met has recorded a deficiency of 15 per cent. “It should be around 14-15 per cent deficiency at the end of the season,” added the official.
No rains and a dry atmosphere caused the minimum temperature to dip. “It is normally seen that lack of moisture makes the air dry and due to this long wave radiation is much more, which cools the surface, and this is why night temperatures dip,” explains the official.
While overall deficiency will continue to be the same even after one or two spells in the country, Met officials said thundershowers will mainly be in southern area. The monsoon usually withdraws from central India and parts of the state from October 1. However, because of the rain spell, withdrawal announcement will be delayed in the state.