Why these polls are crucial for the five big leaders in Maharashtra?

The NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) contested ten seats. Everything weighs on the outcome in Baramati, the family turf of the Pawars. Here, Pawar’s daughter and three-term MP Supriya Sule contested against Sunetra Pawar, the wife of Deputy CM Ajit Pawar.

Since the formation of undivided NCP on June 10, 1999 Sharad Pawar contested successive Lok Sabha polls in alliance with Congress. Yet, the party could never cross nine seats in Maharashtra. What makes 2024 polls precarious is the split in organisation in July 2023 following a revolt by Ajit Pawar who walked away with 41 out of 54 MLAs and one out of four MPs. As a result, Sharad Pawar’s party was left with 13 MLAs and three MPs.

Unfazed with the setbacks, Sharad Pawar took to the ground pledging to rebuild the organisation with greater determination. He took the challenge thrown by his own nephew in home pitch Baramati. Officially, Sharad Pawar during elections sent out a strong signal. He predicted merger of smaller parties into Congress, post polls.

Whether it will hold true for NCP (SP) or not remains to be seen post-polls, especially keeping in sight the 2024 Assembly polls which are likely to be held in October. Irrespective of the electoral outcome, Sharad Pawar’s role as main opposition player in Maharashtra and Centre will remain uncompromised.

Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis admitted during an interview to Indian Express, “With vast experience and at his stature, Sharad Pawar’s relevance as opposition leader cannot be denied. He was the mastermind behind INDIA bloc.”

For MVA constituents, especially Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray, the road ahead is not hurdle-free. After the split in party in June 2022, Thackeray finds himself caught in an ugly turf war with Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. There are 13 Lok Sabha seats where there is a straight contest between Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT).

With 21 seats, Thackeray was projected by MVA as its main leader in Maharashtra. To what extent Thackeray capitalises the sympathy factor whipped in his favour post the split to retain his turf will be known on June 4.

Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut said, “MVA will outperform Maha Yuti. We will bag 35 plus out of 48 seats.”

If Thackeray succeeds in retaining sizeable electoral base and translates it into an electoral outcome, it will give a big boost to his leadership as well organisation. But if he fails, the problems will multiply as Lok Sabha results will also be a verdict on who inherits real Shiv Sena.

In 2014 and 2019, Thackeray, who then led the undivided Shiv Sena, had won 18 seats. But then the party was in alliance with BJP. The elections in 2014 and 2019 were fought on ‘Modi factor’. In clear departure from his past, Thackeray sought mandate through new alliances with Congress and NCP (SP). While eliciting support from Muslims, it needs to be seen to what extent he has kept his own Hindutva vote base intact in the polls which was highly polarised on communal lines in state.

For BJP, Maharashtra proved complex and complicated as far as getting its chemistry and arithmetic were concerned.

While BJP started on high optimism, setting a target of 45 plus out of 48 seats, it realised that its ‘operation lotus’ that split Shiv Sena and NCP was not the lasting solution to achieve its electoral targets. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis was caught in resolving in-house crisis throughout the five-phased campaign. With demanding alliance partner in Shinde, BJP literally was forced into tight rope walk. Along with 116 rallies to maximise BJP’s outreach to people, ensuring coordination among grassroot workers in coalition was a daunting task. The poll outcome will test Fadnavis’s management skill and leadership. The BJP contested 28 seats. It has to ensure higher strike rate to retain its command as well leadership within Maha Yuti. In 2019 elections, BJP had contested 25 seats and won 23. It cannot afford to slip below 24 seats.

Much to BJP’s surprise, Shinde emerged as a hard bargainer, bagging 15 seats out of 48. Initially, party wanted to restrict him within ten seats. The poll outcome will reflect on the leadership ability and CMship of Shinde. After the split in parent party, Shinde took reins of Maharashtra in June 2022. Maha Yuti contested elections under his leadership as CM. If Shinde fails to gain upper hand against Thackeray’s Sena in 13 seats, where it was in direct contest, it will mark his downsizing within Maha Yuti.

A highly placed source in BJP said, “The central leadership of party gave Shinde a long rope. All demands placed by Shinde both in terms of seats as well as constituencies were agreed.” Now, ball is in his court. He has to perform and prove his mettle,” he added.

Unlike Shinde, Deputy CM Ajit Pawar’s role in parliamentary polls was confined to just four constituencies. Apart from these, there was one where Rashtriya Samaj Party led by Mahadev Jankar contested in Parbhani.

The outcome in Baramati constituency will reaffirm the leadership of Ajit Pawar within his own organisation as well Maha Yuti. If Sunetra Pawar bags Baramati, it will help Ajit Pawar to reassert his leadership as the real NCP. If he fails, it will indicate his uncle Sharad Pawar’s upmanship.

When the Ajit Pawar-led NCP joined the coalition government in Maharashtra, BJP hoped to make deeper inroads Western Maharashtra. The BJP’s stated objective to split NCP was to weaken Sharad Pawar’s hold in sugar belt region. The western Maharashtra with 12 Lok Sabha seats and 72 assembly seats has been traditional Congress- NCP bastion. With Ajit Pawar joining BJP/ Shiv Sena coalition, it was felt he would help Maha Yuti to consolidate in sugar belt. However, BJP has realised that the alliance with Ajit Pawar has also invited flak from its own cadre as well as people.