Maharashtra Economic Survey projects 7.9% growth; agriculture expected to dip, industry and services show improvement

The numbers, however, show a sharp decline when compared with the first revised estimate (FRE) for 2024-25, where the growth rate for agriculture and allied activities was estimated to be 9.1 per cent, while industry and services were expected to grow at 4.3 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively.

Between 2011-12 and 2024-25, the share of the services sector remained the highest (above 50 per cent), followed by industry, agriculture and allied activities in nominal gross state value added (GSVA) of the state. As per the FRE of 2024-25, the shares of the agriculture and allied activities, industry, and services sectors are expected to be 11.2 per cent, 25.7 per cent, and 63.1 per cent, respectively. In 2011-12, the corresponding shares were 13.1 per cent, 35.8 per cent, and 51.1 per cent, respectively.

As per the FRE, per capita state income was estimated at Rs 3,17,801 in 2024-25 as against Rs 2,85,290 in 2023-24. On this count, the state stands fifth in the country, with Telangana leading at Rs 3,87,623. Maharashtra’s per capita income is expected to grow to Rs 3,47,903 in 2025-26.

Grim picture of regional imbalance

Estimates of gross district value added (GDVA) paint a grim picture of regional imbalance, with only seven districts—Mumbai city and suburbs, Thane, Pune, Nagpur, Raigad, and Kolhapur—having per capita income above Rs 3 lakh as per the FRE of 2024-25. Eleven districts have a per capita income below Rs 2 lakh.

The survey stated that estimates of GDVA are compiled using the income originating approach and have inherent limitations. For the agriculture and allied activities sector and the mining and quarrying sub-sector, district-wise data is available, but for other sectors, proxy indicators are used to allocate the GSVA estimates to districts, the survey said.

The revenue deficit, fiscal deficit, and primary deficit are expected to be Rs 45,891 crore (0.9 per cent of gross state domestic product, or GSDP), Rs 1,36,235 crore (2.7 per cent of GSDP), and Rs 71,576 crore (1.4 per cent of GSDP), respectively.

The state’s share in central taxes is expected to increase by 10.6 per cent over the previous year. Taxes on income other than corporation tax (37.3 per cent) are expected to be the highest contributor, followed by CGST (29.2 per cent) and corporation tax (28.0 per cent). The share in central taxes is expected to increase from Rs 28,086 crore in 2015-16 to Rs 89,726 crore in 2025-26 (BE).

The state’s total debt stock is expected to be Rs 9,32,242, up by 11.1 per cent over the previous year. However, its percentage to GSDP (18.3 per cent) is expected to be well within the prescribed limit (25.0 per cent) as per the Maharashtra Fiscal Responsibility and Budgetary Management rules.