Dilip Walse-Patil stated a fact: NCP under Sharad Pawar never got close to simple majority in its own turf Maharashtra

Sharad Pawar formed the NCP as a breakaway party from the Congress on June 10, 1999. It earned national status in 2000 but lost it in 2023.

In the past 24 years since its formation, the NCP has never come close to a simple majority in the 288-member strong Maharashtra Assembly. The highest it won was 71 seats in 2004. In the 48-member Lok Sabha, the highest it has won was eight seats in 1999.

In the 1999 Assembly polls, the NCP contested against the Congress and Shiv Sena-BJP alliance. In the three-cornered contest, the NCP won 58 out of 288 seats. After the polls, it forged an alliance with Congress, which emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats, to form a coalition government in Maharashtra.

The number of seats the NCP won in other Assembly polls is 62 (2009), 41 (2014) and 54 (2019). The NCP’s performance in Lok Sabha polls since its formation is as follows: 8 (1999), 9 (2004), 6 (2014) and 5 (2019).

The NCP has never been able to form a government on its own. It has always had to rely on the Congress to get to power in the Centre and the state.

Despite restricted growth in Maharashtra, the NCP had managed to get breakthroughs in Gujarat, Goa, Kerala and northeastern states. In Kerala assembly polls, it won two seats each in 2016 and 2021. In 2017, it won one seat each in Gujarat and Goa. However, it drew nil in both states in the 2022 polls. It won one seat in the 2019 Jharkhand polls.

Walse-Patil, who is now part of the Ajit Pawar-led rebel camp that joined hands with the BJP, said Sunday, “…but on the other hand, the people of Maharashtra never gave him power on his own or allowed him to form the government single-handedly. There is Mamata Banerjee, there is Mayawati. There are many regional parties which are going forward and despite having a tall leader were only getting 60-70 seats in the Assembly. And hence we took the decision (to form an alliance)…”

However, Walse-Patil Monday said that his remarks were misconstrued. “I feel the media has gotten it wrong. I never spoke ill about Sharad Pawar… I was expressing regret that while other regional parties achieved power on their own, the people of Maharashtra did not give it to Sharad Pawar. There is no question of demeaning Pawar saheb or questioning his ability.”

Walse-Patil’s statement Sunday came after Pawar said that those who switched loyalties did it out of fear of the Enforcement Directorate (ED).

With signs of growing discord, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar-led faction is not likely to be a mute spectator. The battle between the uncle and the nephew in the coming days will reassert their political turf.

The divide also provides an opportunity for newly appointed NCP working president Supriya Sule to establish her hold and leadership in the organisation under the tutelage of her father Sharad Pawar. That she will inherit his political legacy is a foregone conclusion.

With Ajit Pawar drawing backing from the BJP, his role is equally challenging. He will have to deliver electoral results for Lok Sabha and gain total control of the organisation if he has to retain leadership. With more than 36 of the 53 MLAs on his side, he may have won the first round. But getting the voters at the grassroots to shift from to his faction remains a litmus test.

The Ajit-led faction also has to ensure Pawar Senior does not get sympathy, as with Uddhav Thackeray after the Shiv Sena split when Eknath Shinde revolted along with 40 MLAs in June 2022.

Despite differences and public rallies, both the Pawars are treading cautiously. They cannot afford another split to threaten their long-term survival and politics.

Earlier, addressing a public rally held in Mumbai soon after the split in the party Ajit Pawar had said, “Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, succeeded in forming the government in Bengal on its own strength winning an absolute majority. Not once or twice, thrice. Aam Aadmi Party, led by Arvind Kejriwal, successfully formed the government twice in Delhi. He got the party to power in Punjab in a short period.”

Ajit Pawar further noted, “In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu formed the government, K Chandrashekhar Rao in Telangana.”

“Amongst all these leaders, Sharad Pawar is outstanding. Yet, the NCP failed to form a government on its own in Maharashtra. It shows we failed to deliver. There were shortcomings,” Ajit Pawar had said.

Political strategists in the NCP led by Sharad Pawar said, “In our internal meetings, we often discussed how to expand the organisation beyond 60 to 70 seats. In 2019, Maharashtra NCP president Jayant Patil set the target of 90 Assembly seats. The party leaders’ dream was to touch the 100-seat mark. But it has remained a distant dream.”

Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said a couple of months ago, “Sharad Pawar may have earned the tag of a tall leader. But he represented just three-and-a-half districts in western Maharashtra.”

Fadnavis implied that Sharad Pawar succeeded in gaining a foothold only in the rich and resourceful sugar belt in western Maharashtra. And that his leadership in Vidarbha and Marathwada was never acceptable to the people.

Insiders in Pawar camp said, “We have to rebuild the party, and our best bet is grand old Maratha leader Pawar. He will extensively tour Maharashtra to network with the new generation to consolidate the party.”