The country may still be pinning its hopes on some rainfall in September, but the El Nino is going to negate that possibility, say Met officials.
The present El Nino is the strongest in the past 65 years as put forward by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and hence, it has been named ‘Bruce Lee’ in the first year of naming El Nino’s.
According to Pune-based meteorolgist and former Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorolgy (IITM) scientist J V Kulkarni, who has been studying the El Ninos affecting the Indian monsoon, though the Met department has said that there is a 12 per cent deficiency, the overall deficiency in each of the individual 36 divisions is much more.
“The present El Nino is the strongest according to NOAA and it has already affected the Indian monsoon in a big way. It seems unlikely that there will be good rains in September. It too will record ‘below normal’ rainfall as has been the case in the last seven El Nino years,’’ said J V Kulkarni.
He said that the seven El Nino years – 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 2002, 2006 and 2009 – had recorded below normal rainfall and this year too, the situation was bound to be the same.
The WMO team expert member explained that in the present case, the El Nino effect was shifting the convection to the east and if the 36 divisions were observed, the eastern side was receiving more rainfall than the western side.
There are three divisions in the excess rainfall category, 18 in the normal and 15 are in the deficient, according to the Met monthly report.
At least 13 per cent of the divisions had excess rainfall, 51 per cent had normal and 36 per cent had deficient rainfall.
Kulkarni added that some years saw the Indian Ocean dipole favouring or countering the El Nino effect, but this year, it was nullified, and from June, the Met department had forecast below normal rainfall.
The Met department scientists have said that the monthly El Nino report would be out in the first week of September and they would wait for observations till March-April to give a final report on whether the El Nino this year was the strongest.
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