With former CM Ashok Chavan quitting the Congress party, the BJP seems to have secured its Nanded Lok Sabha seat for 2024 Lok Sabha elections in April-May. Another significant outcome of the development is BJP’s ambitious plan to wrest the sixth Rajya Sabha seat, polling for which will take place on February 27.
Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, the architect behind the exodus of leaders in Congress, has kept the plans under wraps, but he did give broad hints when he said, “Many Congress members are in touch with the party. Let’s wait and watch how matters unfold.”
Be it panchayat polls or Parliament polls, BJP seems to have mastered the art of making and breaking to achieve its stated objective. And not surprisingly, Ashok Chavan’s resignation coincides with Rajya Sabha polls.
BJP political strategists in the state have indicated that after Chavan, a dozen more MLAs will likely join them, therefore reducing the state Congress tally from the current 44 to 32 MLAs.
Currently, the number of votes to elect a candidate to the Rajya Sabha is 41. Members of the State Legislative Assembly vote for the Rajya Sabha candidate as per the whip issued by their respective political parties. Based on the current strength of parties in the State Legislative Assembly, BJP can have three candidates elected, and both Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar led- NCP can get one candidate each.
Of the total 288 State Legislative Assembly seats, the BJP tally is 104, NCP (Ajit Pawar) 41 and Shinde Sena is 39. Along with smaller parties and independents who have pledged support to Mahayuti—BJP Sena, NCP— the total adds up to 184 seats. Whereas, Congress has 44, Sena (UBT) has 17 and NCP (Sharad Pawar) has 12, other than smaller allies/ independents which add up to 79.
However, insiders in BJP said that since State Legislative Speaker Rahul Narwekar has declared Shinde-led Sena as the real party and upheld its whip, the same whip will be applicable to Sena (UBT).
And the Speaker’s verdict on the whip for the two NCP factions, likely to be given on February 15, is also expected to be on the same lines as Sena, said insiders in the ruling coalition.
Chavan’s resignation, which has exposed internal unrest within the Congress, has made it difficult for the party to get its candidate elected to Rajya Sabha on merit. This paves the way for BJP to push a sixth candidate for Rajya Sabha with Ashok Chavan’s help.
State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “There is absolutely no ambiguity that after Ashok Chavan, many more will cross over to us. I am saying this based on personal interaction with all those aspirants.”
The BJP which had embarked on a bitter campaign against Ashok Chavan and the Congress over the Adarsh Housing Society scam seems to have given electoral success and politics greater priority.
As Bawankule said, “Anybody who wishes to accept the leadership of PM Narendra Modi and be part of BJP’s development agenda is welcome.” Where other issues are concerned, the appropriate agencies and law will take its own course. We have never interfered in the matter in the past, nor will we do so now, he said.
Why BJP needs Ashok Chavan
When the Centre chalked out the list of 166 Lok Sabha seats which came under the “difficult category” across the country it included Nanded in Marathwada region of Maharashtra. From the state, there were altogether 16 such seats. After Operation Lotus, which saw Sena (Shinde faction) and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) aligning with BJP, the number of difficult seats came down to 6. Yet, Nanded remained in the danger category.
Insiders in the BJP admit that in “the absence of Ashok Chavan the going was tough. We had to take remedial measures.” Party leaders cite the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when Moditva was at its peak. Yet Ashok Chavan swam against the tide and won Nanded by defeating BJP’s Digambar Patil.
Five years later, in 2019, Ashok Chavan for the second time gave a tough fight losing by just 40, 148 votes to BJP”s Prataprao Chiklikar. The division of secular votes with Vanchit Bahujan Party candidate who polled 1.66 lakh votes resulted in Ashok Chavan’s defeat. BJP admits that had VBA not contested the polls, it would have been a cake walk for Chavan.
For 2024 LS elections, where Modi has given BJP a target of 370 and NDA a target of 400 seats, the state unit is not willing to gamble away any seat. The party’s desperate attempt to get Ashok Chavan is seen as a big step towards that aim.
The Nanded Lok Sabha seat which was established in 1952 has always been a Congress stronghold. BJP won the seat only twice – in 2004 and 2019. The Janata Party and Janata Dal won the seat in 1977 and 1989 respectively.
The Nanded Lok Sabha which comprises six assembly segments —Bhokar Ashok Chavan (ex-Congress), Nanded North Balaji Kinikar (Shinde Sena); Nanded South Mohanrao Hambarde (Congress); Naigaon Rajesh Pawar (BJP), Deglur Jitesh Antarpurkar (Congress) and Mukhed Tushar Rathod (BJP). Of six, Congress held at least three segments.
In Ashok Chavan the BJP also sees a senior Maratha leader who will make an impact in Marathwada region of Maharashtra. In Congress, the late Vilasrao Deshmukh and Ashok Chavan were considered amongst the two stalwarts in Marathwada. Deshmukh was a native of Babalput village in Latur district and Chavan of Nanded, both in Marathwada. The backward Marathwada region which is drought prone has eight Lok Sabha seats and 48 Assembly seats.
Chavan's resignation, which has exposed internal unrest within the Congress, has made it difficult for the party to get its candidate elected to Rajya Sabha on merit. This paves the way for BJP to push a sixth candidate for Rajya Sabha with Ashok Chavan's help. Express archive 
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