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Thursday, December 03, 2020

Amid fear of second Covid-19 wave, UP bucks Delhi-like trend

Weekly rise dipped by over 10% from mid-Sept to Oct, before settling below 1.

Written by Avaneesh Mishra | Lucknow | November 8, 2020 12:15:49 pm
up coronavirus latest updates, uttar pradesh covid cases, lucknow covid cases, ghaziabad covid cases, UP newsThe new study, 'Prevalence of COVID-19 In Rural Versus Urban Areas in a Low-Income Country: Findings from a State-Wide Study in Karnataka, India' was published recently as a preprint in medRxiv.

At a time when experts are warning of a second wave of Covid-19 cases in the country, recent trends of the last one-and-a-half months first show a sharp dip followed by flattening of the coronavirus curve.

The weekly spike of Covid cases dropped by more than 10 per cent between mid-September and October. The trend was broken in the week ending Saturday with a fall of less than 1 per cent.

The weekly decline was 16.54 per cent in the first week of October, 17.77 per cent in the second week and 12.53 per cent in the fourth week. The weekly increase dropped to 13,558 cases in this week compared to previous week’s 13,625 — a fall 0.49 per cent.

Contributing to the fresh trend is a visible surge in Covid cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) districts of Gautam Buddha Nagar and Ghaziabad, along with Lucknow, which is by far the most affected district in the state.

While Lucknow has already been recording more than 250 cases daily since October, Gautam Buddha Nagar and Ghaziabad have logged over 100 cases daily in the past one week. GB Nagar saw 339 cases on Wednesday.

Agreeing that there is a possibility of a second wave in UP just like in Delhi, Europe and America, senior health officials said, “We need to be cautious and should not lower our guard with reopening of schools and the ongoing festive season.”

“Around mid-September, we were peaking at 7,000 new cases every day. We have now come back to around 2,000 cases per day. Now, it has remained static, and we do not see much reduction. In a state with 22 crore people, a sharp decline in the cases will probably show that we are lacking in aggressive testing and surveillance,” said a senior health department official on the condition of anonymity.

“We cannot completely deny a possibility of another wave as the festival season is under way. To deal with that, we are aggressively testing people and isolating them. But one cannot for sure say what is to come. There has already been some increase in Delhi, which also mirrors the situation in the UP NCR districts. The situation in the rest of the districts is under control. But people need to take precautions and stay safe,” he said.

The state has recorded a total of 4,95,421 cases of which, 4,65,250 have been declared recovered at a rate of 93.9 per cent. After the death of 7,180 patients, the state now has 22,991 active cases. Lucknow has the highest number of active cases at 3,177, followed by 1,638 in Meerut, 1,439 in Gautam Buddha Nagar, 1,231 in Ghaziabad and 1,023 in Varanasi. The Covid fatality rate has remained almost constant at 1.4 percent.

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