West Bengal is expected to receive above-normal rainfall this monsoon, expected to hit the state within a week, while the north-eastern states are likely to face the risk of floods, a private weather forecasting agency said here on Wednesday.
Dr Kanti Prasad, climate scientist at Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS), said there will be a variation in rainfall but overall, the state will receive rainfall in excess, particularly in June.
“From the data and satellite pictures collected, it can be assumed that monsoon would set in Bengal by the seventh of this month and the wind will advance further westward towards Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh and Himalayan belt between June 16 and 20,” Prasaid told reporters.
“While the northern part of the state is likely to receiver excess rainfall in July, the southern part will receive normal rainfall. In August, there are chances of less rainfall, it will be back to normal in September,” added Prasad, former deputy director general of meteorology, IMD.
Asked about the north-eastern states, Prasad predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall in the months of June and July which can give rise to a flood-like situation.
WRMS has analysed data from the NOAA climate coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSV2) model to predict that the onset of monsoon is expected to be slightly delayed and is likely to take place around June 6-7 as a weak current.
Prasad said the data indicated several anomalies over most part of the country during the monsoonal months. “A few pockets of southern peninsula such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu may receive deficient rainfall during the month of July and September,” he said.
Sonu Agarwal, MD, WRMS, said their operation included weather forecasting, suggesting mitigation mechanisms and elaborating on the insurance aspect in adverse situations. “For 2015-16, we had predicted that there would be drought-situation in many parts of the country and had suggested to farmers in those areas that they should not go for water-intensive crops. We collect data from 100 weather stations in Bengal and have several models. We issue advisories to farmers across the nation, take up soil moisture census and also help farmers in planning irrigation if a dry spell is predicted,” Agarwal said.