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After spike, Covid-19 cases in Delhi remain around 1,000 for four days

Delhi’s effective reproduction number (R-value), which indicates the spread of Covid-19, was recorded at 2.1 this week, implying that every infected person is infecting two others in the national capital

A girl receives Covid vaccine at a healthcare centre in New Delhi (File)

With 1,094 cases on Saturday, the Covid-19 trajectory in the capital seems to have stagnated, at least for the time being.

There were around 1,000 cases recorded in Delhi over the last four days, as per the daily health bulletin shared by the government. The positivity rate – proportion of samples tested that return positive, which is indicative of the spread of the infection in a geographical area – has also remained between 4.6 and 4.8% over the last three days, when the daily tests went up and averages at the current 21,890.

Delhi’s effective reproduction number (R-value), which indicates the spread of Covid-19, was recorded at 2.1 this week, implying that every infected person is infecting two others in the national capital, according to an analysis by IIT-Madras as reported by PTI. A similar estimate was generated by researchers from Chennai’s Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

An R-value, which is indicative of the rate of increase in active cases or current infections, of less than 1 would mean that the infection is waning in the community as one person would be infecting less than one person. An R-value of more than 1 indicates an increase.

And, the number of cases in Delhi did increase suddenly over the last 12 days, bringing back the mask mandates that were removed at the beginning of the month. The number of cases went up from over 200 to over 1,000 within nine days.

The increase, however, had been sharper during the omicron-driven wave witnessed in December-end-January, with the number of cases increasing from over 200 to over 1,000 within six days and to over 2,000 within eight days. There were 28,867 cases reported at the peak of the wave, which is the highest Delhi has ever seen. However, hospitalisations and deaths during the January wave were fewer as compared to last year’s Delta variant-driven wave in April-May.

There were 28,395 cases reported in a single day on April 20 last year at the peak of the previous surge in cases and a comparable 28,867 cases on January 13 at the peak of the current surge in cases. However, hospitalisations peaked at 2,734 on January 19 for the current wave as compared to 20,142 on May 3 during the previous wave.

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The highest number of deaths recorded in a day during the January wave was 45 as reported on January 22. The highest single day toll during the previous surge was 448 reported on May 3, as per the data shared by the Delhi government.

First published on: 23-04-2022 at 09:24:13 pm
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