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Coronavirus outbreak: Preparing for spike, Delhi panel relies on Wuhan data for strategy

A five-member committee, formed by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal to chalk out a strategy for COVID-19, has submitted a report factoring in three scenarios: Hundred cases a day in Stage 1; 500 in Stage 2; and 1,000 in Stage 3.

Written by Astha Saxena | New Delhi | Updated: March 28, 2020 11:49:12 am
Wuhan data, India lockdown, coronavirus outbreak, delhi news, indian express news The calculations are based on a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on February 28. (Representational Image)

A 60-year-old Yemeni national who was admitted to a private hospital in Delhi Monday is suspected to have died due to COVID-19, doctors said, after his test results came back Thursday. Doctors added that he had co-morbid conditions.

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“He died soon after he reached the hospital. Since he had a travel history, he was treated as a suspected case of COVID-19 and samples were collected. The report came back positive on Thursday,” said the official. Delhi’s first death was reported on March 13 — of a 68-year-old woman from West Delhi.

Meanwhile, a five-member committee, formed by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal to chalk out a strategy for COVID-19, has submitted a report factoring in three scenarios: Hundred cases a day in Stage 1; 500 in Stage 2; and 1,000 in Stage 3.

The calculations are based on a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on February 28. The study, called ‘Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumon-ia’, was conducted by a group of researchers to analyse the data on the first 425 confirmed cases.

“The calculations are based on this study from Wuhan. If there are 1,000 patients, then 14% will require hospitalisation because of severe infections; about 5% will require an ICU set-up; 2.3% might require ventilator support; and 1.4% might succumb to the disease,” said Dr S K Sarin, head of the committee and chief of the Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences (ILBS).

Read| At world mayor meet, Kejriwal spells out Delhi plan

The committee submitted the report to the government on Friday, suggesting that existing facilities be assessed and gaps be filled. “With this background, if you have 100 cases a day, the calculations will be automatically 1/10th of the numbers suggested in the study. This is for one day, but those who are ventilated or are on ICU may require to stay for at least seven days or longer. So whatever number we get, we will multiply with seven. So if you get 1,000 cases in a day, which is the worst-case scenario, then you have 140 patients hospitalised and you have to multiply it by seven. So you need almost 700 beds at a time because people will stay for seven days. On this basis, we have calculated the number of ventilators, isolation beds and what all needs to be done to build the existing facilities” he said.

The committee said the government needs to stay prepared for all three stages. “As of now, we have enough beds, ventilators and healthcare workers to meet the demands required at Stage 1. For Stage 2, we have suggested that two hospitals – Lok Nayak and Rajiv Gandhi Super Specialty Hospital – will, by and large, take care of the COVID-19 patients. Each hospital has 50 ventilators and 200 isolation beds. Apart from this, private hospitals with more than 100 beds will have to earmark four beds for confirmed COVID-19 patients and 10 for the suspected cases,” he said.

Also Read | Hapless migrants on road, broken supply chains show glaring gaps in how Centre, states implement lockdown

Meanwhile, a 33-year-old man from Uttam Nagar with a travel history tested positive on Friday, taking the total number of confirmed cases in Delhi to 40.

Here’s a quickCoronavirus guide from Express Explained to keep you updated: Are smokers at high risk form coronavirus? | Can Vitamin-C prevent or cure coronavirus infection? | What exactly is community spread of coronavirus? | How long can the Covid-19 virus survive on a surface? | Amid the lockdown, what is allowed, what is prohibited?

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