The opinion polls on Delhi assembly elections look divided with majority projecting clear mandate for Aam Aadmi Party while few predicting a BJP government in Delhi after 15 years.
A poll, carried out by TNS for Economic Times, portend that the AAP is likely to get 36-40 seats in the 70-member Assembly with BJP likely to repeat its 2013 score of 28-32 seats. The AAP vote share will soar to 49%, its best ever showing, the poll predicts. The Congress, considered a non-starter in these polls, will end up with 2-4 seats. The survey was reportedly carried out across 16 constituencies with 3,260 respondents.
On the other hand, a survey by Research and Development Initiative (RDI) gave BJP absolute majority with 41-45 seats. The survey states that AAP is likely to win between 21-25 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly. The vote share projection has given BJP 41 per cent and AAP 36 per cent. Where as, Congress is likely to bag between 0-4 seats with a voteshare of 12 per cent, according to the survey in the last week of January.
However, the survey carried out by ABP news-Nielsen predicted 35 seats for AAP with a vote-share of 37% and 29 seats for the BJP with a corresponding vote-share of 33%. What is noteworthy in this survey is that the AAP draws maximum support from lower-caste groups along with SC/ST communities and Muslims. The latest survey is in stark contrast to the polling firm’s earlier surveys where the BJP had a lead over the AAP.
Hindustan Times, too, has predicted 36-41 seats for Kejriwal’s party with the BJP trailing a close second with 27-32 seats. Congress’s fortunes do not seem to shine even in this poll with the party predicted to win 2-7 seats. A successive defeat in Delhi, where the Congress ruled for 15 long years, will surely dampen the cadre’s morale. A total of 3,578 respondents were queried in the survey with half of them women.
The internal survey by AAP predicted a clear majority for it giving itself 51 seats followed by 15 to BJP and a paltry four seats for Congress and others.
Polling in Delhi will be held on February 7 and the results will be declared on February 10.