After cold and wet January, warmer, drier February predicted in Delhi
An analysis of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data by The Indian Express shows that January saw a monthly average AQI of 307.6, marginally higher than last January, when the figure was 305.7.
After the Capital’s average air quality index (AQI) in January remained in the “Very Poor” category, Delhi is likely to face another warm and relatively dry month beginning Sunday, with February being forecast to bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
An analysis of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data by The Indian Express shows that January saw a monthly average AQI of 307.6, marginally higher than last January, when the figure was 305.7. It is also broadly in line with the AQI recorded in January 2023 (311) and January 2017 (304), indicating that winter pollution has largely plateaued this season.
Though cleaner than some of the most polluted Januaries – the average AQI was recorded at 370 in 2016 and 355 in 2024 – the air quality remained firmly in the “Very Poor” category this month. This occurred despite the month witnessing above-normal rainfall at 25.01 mm, 33% above the season’s normal of 19.1 mm. The rainfall recorded was the highest for January since 2022, when 88.5 mm was
recorded.
While Delhi recorded a night temperature of 6.7 degrees Celsius on Saturday, the high settled at 21.5 degrees Celsius.
The IMD has forecast a fall in maximum temperature on Sunday, with the minimum likely to hover around 11 degrees Celsius and the maximum expected to settle around 18 degrees Celsius. Thunderstorms accompanied by light rain are likely over Delhi.
While rain usually helps clean the air, emissions from vehicles, industrial units, construction dust, and biomass burning — worsened by low winds and temperature inversions — remained the dominant sources of pollution this January.
The monthly average minimum temperature was recorded at 6.8°C, the highest since 2022 (8.2°C), while the monthly average maximum stood at 20.1°C. January also recorded four cold wave days, the lowest frequency in six years.
The trend is expected to continue in February. The IMD forecasts above-normal day and night temperatures in Northwest India, including Delhi, along with a below-normal number of cold wave days.
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Dr Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra, Director General (IMD), said on Saturday, “Maximum temperature will be higher because of fewer active western disturbances. Without significant rainfall activity, nights and days will remain warmer.”
As per IMD’s monthly outlook, rainfall over Northwest India is likely to be below normal (less than 78% of long period average) in February. Across the country, rainfall is also expected to be below normal (less than 81% of LPA), with most regions seeing deficits except parts of Northwest, East-Central India, and extreme Southern Northeast India where rainfall is expected to be in the normal to above normal range.
Meanwhile, as per Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the AQI is expected to remain in the ‘Very Poor’ category up to February 3. It added that for the next six days, the AQI is likely to range from Very Poor to Poor. The city recorded an AQI of 315 (Very Poor) on Saturday, up from Friday’s 253 (Poor).
Sophiya Mathew is a Correspondent at The Indian Express, based in New Delhi. She joined the Delhi bureau in 2024, and has specialization in Integrated Multimedia Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism (ACJ), Chennai.
Professional Background
Core Beats: Her reporting is primarily focused on the Environment and Education.
Specialization: She has gained recognition for her ground-level reporting on the Yamuna floodplains and the socio-economic challenges faced by those living on its banks. She also focuses on the disparities in Delhi's education system, ranging from elite private schools to government institutions and refugee education.
Recent Notable Articles (December 2025)
Her recent work has been heavily centered on Delhi's severe winter pollution crisis and the government's regulatory responses:
1. The Air Pollution Crisis
"A tale of two cities: Delhi govt schools choke in bad air, private classrooms set up air filters" (Dec 20, 2025): A high-impact feature contrasting the "Clean Air Bubbles" in elite schools with the reality of government school students who are exposed to an equivalent of 17 cigarettes a day due to outdoor exposure.
"Delhi sees season's worst air day, second worst December AQI in nearly a decade" (Dec 15, 2025): An analytical report on the meteorological patterns trapping pollutants in the NCR.
"Delhi bans non-BS VI vehicles from outside: Why curbing vehicular pollution is key" (Dec 17, 2025): Explaining the science behind targeting specific vehicle vintages to lower particulate matter.
2. Enforcement & Regulations
"No fuel at pumps in Delhi without valid PUC certificate from December 18" (Dec 17, 2025): Breaking the news on the environment ministry's strict "No PUC, No Fuel" policy.
3. Education Policy
"Law to regulate school fee in Delhi risks becoming procedural, say parents" (Dec 13, 2025): Investigating the loopholes in the new Delhi School Education (Transparency in Fixation and Regulation of Fees) Bill, 2025.
"Monsoon Session: Private school fee regulation Bill cleared after four-hour debate" (Aug 9, 2025): Covering the legislative passage of the controversial fee hike regulation.
Signature Style
Sophiya is known for her observational depth. Her reporting often includes vivid details from school corridors, hospital waitlists, or the banks of the Yamuna to illustrate how policy failures affect the city's most vulnerable residents. She is a frequent expert guest on the 3 Things podcast, where she explains the complexities of Delhi’s environmental laws.
X (Twitter): @SophiyaMathew1 ... Read More
