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Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Winning chances since 2004: 18% for tainted candidates, 11% for clean

ADR and Punjab Election Watch analysed election affidavits of 3,547 candidates and 413 MLAs/MPs filed during Vidhan Sabha and Parliament elections in Punjab. These were filed between 2004 and 2019 with the Election Commission.

Written by Man Aman Singh Chhina | Chandigarh |
January 12, 2022 11:04:19 am
As per the report, while the average assets declared by candidates since 2004 stood at Rs 3.5 crore, the average figure of assets for elected MPs and MLAs was at Rs 11.42 crore. (File photo)

Money and muscle power had a huge bearing on the electoral fate of contestants in Punjab polls – Assembly and Parliament – since 2004, an exhaustive analysis by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) and Punjab Election Watch has revealed.

As per the report, while the average assets declared by candidates since 2004 stood at Rs 3.5 crore, the average figure of assets for elected MPs and MLAs was at Rs 11.42 crore.

Talking about winniability of candidates with tainted past, Parvinder Singh Kittna of Punjab Election Watch said, “It is very interesting that the analysis of winnability of clean vs tainted candidates in the report shows that there are only 11 per cent chances of winning an election for those with a clean record which is 18 per cent for those with criminal records.”

ADR and Punjab Election Watch analysed election affidavits of 3,547 candidates and 413 MLAs/MPs filed during Vidhan Sabha and Parliament elections in Punjab. These were filed between 2004 and 2019 with the Election Commission.

CANDIDATES WITH CRIMINAL BACKGROUND
The results, shared Tuesday, revealed that the average assets of 385 candidates (analysed since 2004) with declared criminal cases stood at Rs 6.62 crore, while the assets for 223 candidates with declared serious criminal cases has been Rs 7.27 crore. Meanwhile, the average assets of 69 MPs/MLAs (analysed since 2004) with declared criminal cases were Rs 18 crore and for 32 MPs/MLAs with declared serious criminal cases, the average has been Rs 26.69 crore.

As per the report, 385 (11 per cent) of the total 3,547 candidates and 69 (17 per cent) of 413 MPs/MLAs had declared criminal cases against themselves since 2004. Of these, 223 (6 per cent) candidates and 32 (8 per cent) MPs or MLAs had serious criminal cases against them.

According to Jaskirat Singh, a trustee of ADR, “Analysis of the data has revealed that money power and muscle power have a large bearing on the outcome of the election results in Punjab.”

Providing party-wise breakdown, the report shows that 56 (14 per cent) out of 406 candidates who have contested on Congress tickets since 2004 have declared criminal cases against them, 71 (22 per cent) out of 325 candidates who have contested on SAD tickets since 2004, 8 (10 per cent) out of 83 BJP candidates, 15 (11 per cent) out of 142 AAP candidates, 5 (45 per cent) out of 11 Lok Insaaf Party candidates and 104 (9 per cent) out of 1,175 Independent candidates had declared criminal cases.
The report further shows that 24 (6 per cent) out of 406 candidates, who have contested on Congress tickets since 2004, have declared serious criminal cases against themselves.

Also, 33 (10 per cent) out of 325 candidates who have contested on SAD tickets since 2004, 3 (4 per cent) out of 83 BJP candidates, 10 (7 per cent) out of 142 AAP candidates, 5 (45 per cent) out of 11 Lok Insaaf Party candidates and 70 (6 per cent) out of 1,175 Independent candidates have declared serious criminal cases.

Data on party-wise criminal cases of MPs/MLAs shows that 29 (15 per cent) out of 195 MPs/MLAs elected on Congress tickets since 2004 have declared criminal cases against themselves; and 29 (20 per cent) out of 142 MPs/MLAs elected on SAD tickets since 2004, 4 (10 per cent) out of 42 BJP MPs/MLAs, 3 (13 per cent) out of 24 AAP MPs/MLAs, 2 (100 per cent) out of 2 Lok Insaaf Party MPs/MLAs and 2 (25 per cent) out of 8 Independent MPs/MLAs have declared criminal cases.

Party-wise serious criminal cases data of MPs/MLAs shows that 14 (7 per cent) out of 195 MPs/MLAs elected on Congress tickets since 2004 have declared serious criminal cases against themselves, 13 (9 per cent) out of 142 MPs/MLAs elected on SAD tickets since 2004, 2 (5 per cent) out of 42 BJP MPs/MLAs, 1 (4 per cent) out of 24 AAP MPs/MLAs and 2 (100 per cent) out of 2 Lok Insaaf Party MPs/MLAs have declared serious criminal cases.

Analysis of financial details of candidates shows that among the national parties, since 2004, average assets of 406 candidates from Congress is Rs 10.86 crore, while 83 BJP candidates have declared average assets of Rs17.82 crore. Among the regional parties of Punjab, average assets of 325 SAD candidates were Rs 9.33 crore and average assets of 1m175 Independent candidates stood at Rs 1.05 crore.

About financials of MPs/MLAs, party-wise it shows that among the national parties since 2004, average assets of 195 MPs/MLAs from Congress was at Rs 13.59 crore, while 42 BJP MPs/MLAs had declared average assets of Rs 7.18 crore. Among the regional parties of Punjab, average assets of 142 SAD MPs/MLAs were Rs 11.33 crores, and average assets of 8 Independent MPs/MLAs were Rs.3.75 crore.

On gender equality, the report shows that out of the 3,547 candidates analysed (who have contested elections since 2004), only 256 or 7 per cent were women.

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