‘More votes for BJP in Punjab, but not necessarily seats; Congress narrative powerful, but not reaching masses’

In a conversation with The Indian Express, Kumar also added that “the Punjab farmers will never support BJP”. To register their protest over their unmet demands, the farmers in Punjab have been holding protests
against the BJP candidates when they campaign for the Lok Sabha polls.

He said Prime Minister Narendra Modi was “the dominant political personality in the country in the current times whether somebody likes it or not”. He, however, added that the issue of saving democracy and the Constitution being raised by the opposition Congress was a “powerful narrative”, but there “seems to be a failure of communicating the message in a language that touches the heart of the people”.

Predicting a “fractured mandate” in Punjab in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls due to “four or five major political parties entering the electoral arena”, Kumar said, “Aam Aadmi Party being the ruling party with the largest number of MLAs in its kitty, cannot be wished away. In the absence of any major anti-incumbency against them, AAP will perform well in certain parliamentary constituencies.”

He added, “People who do not want to vote for AAP will have the choice to vote either for the Congress or the BJP or the SAD. So the anti-incumbency vote against AAP will get split, again to the ruling party’s advantage. The Congress will have some advantage as it is still a party with a base in every village of Punjab and is expected to reap the major benefit of anti-incumbency against AAP. BJP will see a massive surge in its vote share particularly in the urban areas which is its core constituency. But this time it will see a major surge even in the rural support base.”

“In terms of electoral outcomes, I see a setback for the Akali Dal. But, having taken a stand against the BJP, it will succeed in consolidating or retaining its traditional vote bank. But electorally in terms of the number of seats, I think
Akali Dal will suffer significantly,” Kumar added. Lamenting that elections have become “individual centric”, Kumar said, “My worry is that the election – rightly or wrongly and to the advantage of BJP – has become person-centric.

And that person is the Prime Minister.” Suggesting that the discourse should be concentrated on the core issues that confront the nation, Kumar said, “Today there are only two narratives in the country. One is the narrative of the BJP which is anchored in their idea of nationalism and appeal to the religious sentiments of a section of the people. There is an alternative narrative of democracy, Constitution, justice, dignity, equality and inclusion which the opposition is trying to build up.”

He added, “Quite clearly, speaking for myself any right minded voter or citizen of this country would lean in favour of democracy and constitutional values. But whether or not the opposition has been able to bring this narrative at the centre stage for serious consideration of the people is still doubtful. The opposition needs to ensure that its alternative narrative has emotional appeal and is communicated in a language easily understood by the people.

Whereas the Prime Minister when he gives his message somehow goes to the heart of the people. It resonates with the people.”

“And of course, another thing which will remain paramount would be that the Lok Sabha election are for electing the PM of the country. The question of who other than Modi remains a relevant question with a large number of people.

Unless the opposition shows that it can project a leadership of certain stature and quality in aid of furthering its alternative narrative, the BJP will continue to have an advantage.”

“There was an overall perception in the country that political opponents are being squeezed which is not good for the future of democracy and will lead to scars that will take a very long time to heal,” he added.