Even as the positivity rate of COVID-19 cases in Chandigarh has grown to 7.63 per cent, more than double the national average positivity rate of 3.8 per cent, the rate of increase in testing has slumped in the last five days in the UT. The authorities have been conducting 60 tests on average each day for the past five days, projecting an increase in testing by 3 per cent every day considering the average number of tests per day remains constant in the future.
The positivity rate of COVID-19 patients is the proportion of confirmed cases to the total number of tests conducted.
As the positivity rate continues to rise in Chandigarh, it implies that out of the total pool of people being tested, more and more are likely to turn out positive for novel coronavirus as each day passes. According to an epidemiologist from the city who wishes to remain anonymous, the increase in positivity rate can either denote a decrease in testing, or testing targeted at a pool which is already likely to be positive. “In this case, it could be that only contacts of positive patients and people from hotspots are being tested, and surveillance and testing has not been much in other parts of the city,” the epidemiologist says.
Apart from the high positivity rate, the city’s average growth rate as projected by calculating the growth in number of cases in the last seven days, is now between 8 and 9 per cent, far beyond the rate at which testing is increasing every day in the Union Territory. This growth rate is also close to the projected growth rate in cases of the Union Territory of Delhi, which has a 9 per cent growth rate and has the largest share of cases in India after Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.
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