20.8 million tonne target in sight: Why the war in West Asia has Indian rice exporters worried

The advisory came as several rice shipments dispatched in February are yet to reach their destinations amid disruptions in shipping routes and heightened regional uncertainty.

India had set an ambitious target of exporting around 20.8 million tonnes of rice in the current financial year. The projection included roughly 14 million tonnes (140 lakh metric tonnes) of non-basmati rice and about 6.8 million tonnes (68 lakh metric tonnes) of basmati rice.

The target is higher than last year’s performance. In FY 2024–25, India exported around 20.1 million tonnes of rice, including 6.06 million tonnes of basmati and 14.04 million tonnes of non-basmati rice.

According to export data available with the industry, India had already exported about 17.08 million tonnes of rice by the end of January 2026 in the current financial year. This includes shipments of both basmati and non-basmati varieties.

Several additional consignments were dispatched in February as well, but exporters say many of these shipments have not yet reached destination ports due to the ongoing turmoil affecting maritime movement in parts of West Asia.

West Asia: A big market for basmati

The immediate concern naturally centres around India’s premium basmati rice, which depends heavily on markets in the Gulf and neighbouring regions.

Between April 2025 and January 2026, India exported about 53.80 lakh metric tonnes of rice to West Asia, including 37.66 lakh metric tonnes of basmati rice. Exporters are yet to receive payments for several shipments, which have already reached their destination in the previous months.

Key destinations included Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Saudi Arabia alone imported over 8 lakh metric tonnes during this period, while Iran purchased more than 7.8 lakh metric tonnes.

Basmati exports during this period fetched average prices exceeding USD 800 per metric tonne, highlighting their premium positioning in global markets.

Non-basmati rice finds takers in Africa

However, while basmati attracts attention because of its value and strong brand identity, non-basmati rice accounts for the bulk of India’s export volumes.

Between April 2025 and January 2026, India exported nearly 11.70 million tonnes (117 lakh metric tonnes) of non-basmati rice, with about 65 per cent shipped to African countries, generating export earnings of more than Rs 40,000 crore.

These figures indicate that Africa—rather than West Asia — remains the principal destination for India’s non-basmati rice exports.

“Unlike basmati rice, which is closely tied to premium consumers in West Asian markets, non-basmati exports operate across a much wider geographical base in Africa and are driven largely by volume demand for food security,” said Vinod K Kaul, Director General, IREF.

“The average realisation per metric tonne in non-basmati exports generally ranges between USD 375 and USD 560, depending on the destination. But the large shipment scale makes it a crucial pillar of India’s overall rice export economy,” he said.

In many African countries, Indian non-basmati rice is a daily staple, making the trade fundamentally demand-driven.

Over 3.7 million tonnes awaiting export

Industry representatives say that despite the diversification of non-basmati markets, the present disruption in shipping routes and rising freight uncertainties could slow overall export movement in the final months of the financial year.

“This contrast reflects the broader structure of India’s rice exports. While basmati remains a high-value product with strong linkages to West Asian markets, non-basmati provides the export volume that keeps India at the top of the global rice trade,” said Kaul.

With 17.08 million tonnes already shipped by January-end, exporters say the industry still needs to move over 3.7 million tonnes in the remaining months to meet the 20.8 million tonne target.

Whether India can achieve that figure now depends largely on how quickly shipping movement stabilises and whether geopolitical tensions in West Asia ease in the coming weeks, industry experts said.