Weak and short La Niña conditions could emerge in December-February: World Meteorological Organisation

During the June 2023-May 2024 period, El Nino conditions prevailed. Even though multiple weather models have been predicting the emergence of La Niña since July this year, all of them have been repeatedly going significantly off the mark.

“Global warming has a role in the overall ocean warming. It seems that this increased warming experienced by the ocean was not captured well by the weather models, on the basis of which a transitioning into La Nina was projected,” M Rajeevan, a former secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told The Indian Express.

One of the main drivers that control the sea surface temperatures is the atmosphere. And the westerly wind anomalies particularly dominated during the September-October period. Climatologically, westerly wind anomalies are unfavourable for the development of La Niña.

“India, this year, experienced a good monsoon season. Another possibility could be the influence of good monsoons on the westerly wind anomalies and subsequently can reduce the cooling of the oceans,” he explained.

The WMO reiterated that 2024 is going to set new temperature records and is on the way to becoming the warmest year ever. This means that average annual ocean-land-atmospheric temperatures in 2024 could breach the 2016 record (0.71 degrees Celsius above normal).

On the possible impact of La Niña, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “2024 started out with El Niño and is on track to be the hottest on record. Even if a La Niña event does emerge, its short-term cooling impact will be insufficient to counterbalance the warming effect of record heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

Despite neutral ENSO prevailing since May this year, 2024 has witnessed an extraordinary series of extreme weather events, including record-breaking rainfall and flooding as well as extreme heat in India and Europe, contributing to the continuing spate of weather extremes.