Full-blown third wave or mild effect? An expert weighs in amid Omicron scare

“There are two possible outcomes in the future. If the number of Omicron cases passes the critical limit, we will have wide-spread community transmission and a full-blown third wave. However, the other possibility is with a significant number of natural infections of Delta during the second wave and an increase in vaccinations in the second half of 2021, we have added protection against Omicron and we may not see the kind of spike that other countries are currently witnessing,” he said.

The doctor added, “The call to action is to keep testing for Omicron and watch out for clusters and follow stringent quarantine and contact tracing policies.”

He further said, “If community transmission of Omicron is evident along with increase in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and increase in the mortality rate, prepare for lockdowns and a well-prepared emergency response.”

Rao explained, “Apart from protection from hybrid immunity, India may also stand at an advantage compared to South Africa, where a steep rise in the number of cases, attributed to Omicron, is being witnessed. South Africa has a fully-vaccinated population of 26 per cent (and 32 per cent with at least one dose), whereas India currently has a fully-vaccinated population of 39.7 per cent (and 60 per cent with at least one dose). The advantage of hybrid immunity with the Delta variant, plus a whole-virion vaccine like Covaxin, could entail that India may have a milder third wave for Omicron compared to South Africa.”

Calling it a concern, Rao said, “We need to keep a close watch on the impact of Omicron on the vulnerable populations and contain the new wave completely.”

A member of the state Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) on Covid-19 said presently, the new variant has not increased the fatality rate. However, as a precautionary measure, Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) has made it mandatory for hospitals to test all SARI ILI patients visiting the OPDs for Covid.

BBMP special commissioner (health) Dr Trilok Chandra said, “Presently, Covid cases in the city are under control. As a precautionary measure, according to the government order, private hospitals must be ready to reserve beds for Covid-19 patients. Along with that, separate paediatric beds should also be ensured.”

The first two cases of Omicron in Karnataka — a doctor, who tested positive for Covid-19 on November 22, and a passenger with a travel history to South Africa — were recorded in Bengaluru on December 2. Subsequently, the other cases were reported in six districts across the state — Bengaluru (8), Shivamogga (1), Belagavi (1), Udupi (2), Dharwad (1) and Dakshina Kannada (6). Of the 19 cases, only six have international travel history.

On December 12, the third case of Omicron was detected with the person having a travel history to South Africa. On December 16, a total of five cases of Omicron were confirmed of which, three were found to be having international travel history.

On December 18, Karnataka reported six cases of Omicron. In the outbreak of two new Covid-19 clusters at educational institutions in Mangaluru and Bantwal, both in Dakshina Kannada district, five cases of Omicron were added to the list.

A 13-year-old and three 14-year-old students from a residential school at Bantwal were among the confirmed cases on December 18. A 19-year-old woman from a college in Mangaluru was also found infected with Omicron on the same day along with an 18-year-old woman with a travel history to the UK.

The state health department on December 19 said a 54-year-old woman from Dharwad, 20-year-old student from Bhadravathi in Shivamogga, 82-year-old man and 73-year old woman from Udupi and 19-year-old woman, a student, from Mangaluru were confirmed cases of Omicron.  All the five patients were fully-vaccinated and had no international travel history.