JD(S) banks on stable NDA government in Delhi to reap benefits of Lok Sabha poll resurgence

The combined strength of the BJP and JD(S) saw the NDA winning 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in south Karnataka with the Congress managing to win only the controversial Hassan seat, the Gowda family borough, and the SC-reserved Chamarajanagar seat.

The strategic decision to join the BJP-led NDA alliance after being rejected by the Congress for the INDIA bloc has paid dividends for the JD(S). It has re-established the credentials of Gowda and his son H D Kumaraswamy as the foremost leaders of the dominant Vokkaliga community in south Karnataka.

This position was challenged by Karnataka Congress chief D K Shivakumar after the 2023 Congress win in 39 (compared to 17 in 2018) of 61 Old Mysore Assembly seats spanning the Vokkaliga belt even as the JD(S) managed only 14 seats (compared to 27 in 2018).

Realising that it was losing ground to the Congress in a three-way fight in the region with the BJP, the JDS allied with the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections on the basis of a good relationship between PM Modi and Gowda.

The JD(S)-BJP alliance has been identified by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and state Congress chief Shivakumar as the primary cause for the Congress’s loss in the 12 Lok Sabha segments in south Karnataka, compared to seven segments in the north.

Lok Sabha results, good news for regional parties

Following its resurgence in the Lok Sabha elections, the JD(S) leadership in Karnataka is, however, viewing the national results with caution. Glad that the results have given regional parties a new lease of life on account of the BJP’s diminished majority, the JD(S) is also eyeing a prominent ministry in the new government to re-establish its political standing. The JD(S) leadership has reportedly hinted at the agriculture ministry being a perfect fit for the “farmers’ party”.

JD(S) state president and former chief minister H D Kumaraswamy, who won by a huge margin of 2.5 lakh votes in the Vokkaliga heartland of Mandya, was among the proposers of Narendra Modi’s name as the PM candidate at an NDA parliamentary meeting last week.

Kumaraswamy is set to be inducted as a Union minister on Sunday. While Gowda said he was unwell and “would watch the ceremony on TV”, the former CM’s family has travelled to Delhi.

“There is no major agenda from our side. We want the government to be formed under the leadership of Narendra Modi without any hurdles – that is our top priority,” Kumaraswamy said in Delhi where he has camped since June 4.

“We do not have any demands. Our demand is that in Karnataka for several years we are facing a lot of problems and we need to address these problems. In this direction, we aim to resolve the problems of the state with the help of the central government,” said.

“One of the sectors where the JD(S) has a core strength is agriculture. We have always fought for the benefit of the farming community. We are inclined towards the agriculture sector but we have to see what happens,” said Kumaraswamy, who waived farm loans in Karnataka in 2018.

According to Kumaraswamy, the two key NDA partners, Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP’s) Chandrababu Naidu and Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar, with whom his father has worked in the past, will hold firm in the alliance.

“Naidu is a mature politician. He knows the situation and he will not take any negative decisions. Nitish Kumar has worked with the BJP for a long time. Even when Vajpayee was the PM, he (Nitish) worked with the BJP. I do not think he will make any negative decisions in this situation. My conscience says he will stand solidly behind Narendra Modi,” he claimed.

Soon after the results of the Lok Sabha and the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections were declared, the JD(S) leader and Deve Gowda congratulated Naidu on his victory. “He will without doubt serve the people of Andhra Pradesh with great dedication. His victory reminded me of 1996 when I formed the government,” Gowda said, referring to the United Front government of 1996 where he left his position as Karnataka chief minister to become the Prime Minister in a 13-party alliance.

Naidu and Gowda are among regional politicians who have supported reservations for Muslims in their respective states as a social justice measure in contradiction to the BJP’s stand on the issue of reservations for Muslims. Gowda has enjoyed good ties with Kumar through the Janata Parivar and said earlier this year that he was ready to propose his candidature for PM in 2022 when the creation of a Janata Federal Front was proposed by the two leaders.

Kumaraswamy also said in Delhi in the past week that the INDIA bloc will not be beneficial for the country. “We know the parties that have come together to form the INDI alliance from past experience. They will not be able to provide a stable government for the country,” he said.

According to JD(S) insiders, the BJP’s victory with a diminished majority is good news for regional parties. “There was the nagging sense that our standing as an independent party would be affected if the BJP won a big majority. It is good for regional parties, the federal system and democracy if the BJP has to rely on others to govern effectively,” a JD(S) worker said. “We feel regional parties will be able to retain their identity in the post-2024 Lok Sabha poll situation,” he added.

“A month ago, the JD(S) looked like it was in a bad situation due to the pen drive controversy. With its direct win in two parliamentary seats, it is now in a position to hold a ministry in the NDA government. The Vokkaligas have consolidated again behind the JD(S) and re-established Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy as leaders of the community,” a senior Congress leader said.