Why Strait of Hormuz remains Iran’s ‘silver bullet’, explains former UN envoy T S Tirumurti

He explained, “Once Iran hit and widened the war to the region, it became very clear that the US and Israel’s goals had become divergent… For the Americans it became a political goal because they found that their own allies were getting hit. That is the realisation… That this is not a war that can be solved by the military alone.”

He further said that Iran had, after many gains at the strategic level, felt that they had achieved a strategic victory. “Now, if they (the Americans) are going to go back on an agreement within days of signing it, the Iranians feel that they have been cheated. They are trying to do everything possible to show the Americans that you cannot win this war if you want to prolong it.”

Tirumurti also pointed out that as the situation escalated, Iran had also involved other parties on their side, such as the Houthis in Yemen who had issued threats against Saudi shipping, and Shia militias in Iraq.

US failure to achieve objectives

Also speaking at the event, Ranjan Mathai noted that to a certain extent, the limits of the war had been exposed, as America had achieved none of the objectives declared by them and Iran still retained the capacity to retaliate through drones/missiles. He also pointed out that internal support could also be a problem for the US, owing to dissatisfaction with rising fuel prices.

He added, “The stories of Donald Trump overruling his advisors after Benjamin Netanyahu‘s briefing in February have gone down very badly with the Trump coalition, particularly MAGA, who feel that they have been dragged down Israel’s path.”

With regard to Indian involvement or lack thereof, Mathai opined that India had chosen not to get involved with the mediation process on account of having to keep working ties with the “temperamental” Trump administration.

He added that it could have still leveraged its ties with Israel, pointing out, “We could have told them that we have very high stakes in the Gulf, 10 million of our people are living/working here, so please do not create chaos. I think we should have done more.”