The monsoon season this year in Gujarat was not disappointing when it comes to the amount of rainfall compared to 2019, however, the skewed rainfall pattern across districts has raised concerns. Kutch and Saurashtra recorded excess rainfall, while the remaining part of the state is facing deficit.
By July-end, the overall average rainfall percentage was 42.23 per cent against 40.56 per cent in 2019. The amount of rainfall (in millimetres) was also not much different in June and July.
This June, the state received 122.24 mm rainfall against 108.59 mm in the same month in 2019 and in July, it was 228.66 mm against 222.37 mm the previous year. Again, the spell has been almost similar in terms of volume for these two active monsoon months. However, the skewed pattern emerges when the region-specific rainfall pattern is compared.
The state is divided into five regions in terms of rainfall pattern, of which while Kutch and Saurashtra recorded 89.16 and 72 per cent rainfall respectively, while it is below 31 per cent in the other three regions of North Gujarat, East Central Gujarat and South Gujarat.
The rainfall pattern varied between 27.63 per cent 89.16 per cent between North Gujarat region and Kutch, respectively, by the end of July, while East Central Gujarat recorded 28.01 per cent and South Gujarat 30.93 per cent.
In 2019, with almost similar amount of rainfall, the pattern ranged between 25.73 to 55.92 per cent among the five regions — North Gujarat 25.73 per cent, East Central Gujarat 29.96 per cent, Saurashtra 38.37 per cent and Kutch 34.08 per cent.
The reason attributed for this skewed rainfall pattern in Gujarat is said to be the lack of any system over Bay of Bengal that brings rainfall to the Gujarat region — North Gujarat, East-Central and South Gujarat.
“The skewed rainfall this year is majorly due to no system over the Bay of Bengal as against over the Arabian Sea. While Saurashtra and Kutch regions have already received excess rainfall, the remaining part of the state is under deficit,” said Ahmedabad Meteorological Centre additional director, Manorama Mohanty.
She added, “A low pressure area may develop over Bay of Bengal around August 4, which is likely to bring rainfall in these deficit regions.” The IMD forecast says the state may experience an active wet spell from August 5 to 7.
According to the forecast, heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely in Valsad, Surat, Navsari, Banaskantha, Patan, Bhavnagar, Amreli, Gir Somnath, Botad and Kutch on August 5.
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