West Asia war impact: India’s private sector posts weakest growth in 3.5 years in March

Official government data on how the economy has performed in March will only be available after a month. Data on output of the eight core sectors (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement, and electricity) and industrial production will be released on April 20 and April 28, respectively. GDP data for January-March will be made public even later on May 29.

S&P Global Flash PMI for India on March 24 2026.

Unlike most indicators of economic activity, the PMI measures change on a month-on-month basis instead of year-on-year, with a reading above 50 suggestive of expansion in activity compared to the previous month, while a sub-50 print is a sign of contraction.

“March data highlighted the weakest expansion in Indian private sector output since October 2022,” S&P Global, the compiler of the index, said on Tuesday. “The slowdown primarily reflected a softer upturn in domestic demand for goods and services as international orders rose to the greatest extent in the series history. Companies indicated that the Middle East war, unstable market conditions and inflationary pressures all dampened growth,” it added.

The US and Israel began their attack on Iran on February 27, with the latter’s subsequent retaliation on American allies in the Gulf region and closure of the key waterway of the Strait of Hormuz leading to a huge shortage in energy products globally. This has led to a sharp rise in energy prices, including those of crude oil and natural gas.

The price of India’s crude oil basket was $157.04 per barrel on Monday, with the average for March at $121.64/bbl, up 76% from February.

According to S&P Global, March has seen input costs rise the most in nearly four years, with raw materials like aluminium, chemicals, electronic components, energy, food, iron ore, leather, oil, rubber, and steel all more expensive. Companies, however, absorbed a “large part” of the rise in costs, with final prices for consumers rising the most in only seven months compared to 45 months for input prices.

Goods producers experienced the biggest slowdown in March, with the war in West Asia hurting output by way of increased market instability, higher price higher, and weaker demand due to heightened future uncertainty among clients and consumers. Service providers, on the other hand, saw the weakest expansion in March since January 2025. “Anecdotal evidence particularly pointed to disruptions to international travel and the negative impact of the joint strikes by the US and Israel and Iran’s counterattacks,” S&P Global said.