Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered the inflation forecast for India during the current financial year to 4.1 percent, on the back of gain in rupee and cut in the country’s GDP projection.
India will be the main driver to lower the inflation for the South Asian region, ADB said in a supplement to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019. South Asia’s inflation forecast for 2019, was revised down from 4.7 percent to 4.5 percent, mainly reflecting lowered forecasts for India, the ADO supplement said.
The ADO supplement has lowered India’s GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points from April outlook to 7 percent in 2019-20. “In light of a smaller-than-expected uptick in food inflation, a strengthening Indian rupee since October 2018, and a lower GDP growth forecast, this Supplement revises down inflation forecasts for India by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1 per cent in FY2019 (fiscal ending in March 2020) and 4.4 per cent in FY2020 (ending March 2021),” ADB said.
As per the ADO supplement, inflation projections for developing Asia have revised up to a notch from 2.5 percent to 2.6 percent in both 2019 and 2020, reflecting higher oil prices and several domestic factors.
Price fluctuations for brent crude oil continue amid various concerns affecting both supply and demand, it added.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank in its last monetary policy review in June had raised the retail inflation forecast marginally to 3-3.1 percent for the first half of the current fiscal citing reasons of an uptick in food prices – mainly vegetables, despite expectations of a normal monsoon this season.
However, the retail inflation projection for the second half of 2019-20 has been cut to 3.4-3.7 percent as against RBI’s previous projection of 3.5-3.8 percent. The RBI will review the monetary policy in its upcoming meeting in early August.