Amid Strait of Hormuz closure, India’s Russian oil imports surge by 50%; could rise further if crisis persists

These volumes could rise further if regular West Asian oil volumes through the Strait are not reinstated soon. Around 2.5-2.7 million bpd of India’s crude imports, accounting for around half of the country’s total oil imports, have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent months; the longer-term average is around 40%. This oil is mainly from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.

Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler, said, “Looking ahead, if the current shipment schedules and cargo movements continue, total Russian crude arrivals for the full month could reach close to 2 million barrels per day, or potentially even exceed that level, further reinforcing India’s crude supply position amid the broader uncertainty surrounding flows through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Vessel tracking data also indicates that a substantial number of Russian crude cargoes are currently on the waters, particularly moving across the Indian Ocean region toward Indian ports. Around 130 million barrels of Russian crude was estimated to be on ships on water as of early March. This stockpile included significant volumes across the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and Suez Canal routes, and around Singapore, which could potentially be redirected towards Indian ports.

In recent months, India had cut down significantly on its oil imports from Russia amid trade negotiations with the US, as Washington made it a pre-requisite for scrapping its 25% additional penal tariff on Delhi. In February, India had imported just over 1 million bpd of Russian crude, almost half of the 2025 peak of over 2 million bpd. Loadings of Russian crude for Indian ports, which averaged 1.7 million bpd last year, was just 0.7 million bpd in February. India is the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil and depends on imports to meet over 88% of its oil requirement.

But with the Strait of Hormuz closed, Washington is now more than happy with India consuming more Russian crude, even from sanctioned entities and tankers. Last week, the US issued a temporary 30-day “waiver” to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian crude that is already sitting in tankers on water. Apart from providing temporary relief to India, experts also see it as part of US President Donald Trump’s effort to prevent a further and sustained spike in international oil prices – and the consequent rise in domestic fuel prices in the US – given the midterm elections later this year.

On Wednesday, US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said, “India has been a great partner in maintaining stable oil prices around the world. The United States recognizes ongoing purchases of Russian oil are a part of this effort. India is one of the largest consumers and refiners of oil and it is essential for the United States and India to work hand in hand for market stability for Americans and Indians.”

Ritolia said, “The United States has also acknowledged India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil, recognising that India, as one of the largest consumers and refiners globally, plays an important role in maintaining global oil market stability. In this context, the effective flexibility or informal waiver allowing India to continue importing significant Russian volumes has supported refiners in securing steady crude flows while managing price volatility. As a result, the steady inflow of Russian barrels, combined with additional sourcing from regions such as the United States and West Africa, will help ensure that India remains well supplied with crude, despite the uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and broader geopolitical tensions.”

Last week, government sources had indicated that India had six-eight weeks of crude and fuel stocks, which would be replenished on an ongoing basis with supplies from other regions being increased. As refineries continue to process crude, produce fuels, and get more oil from regions other than West Asia, these stocks will keep shifting, and the effective coverage would be extended, they had said.

Sources indicated that the government and Indian oil and gas companies are in touch with all international suppliers, including national oil companies and even large traders like Vitol, Trafigura, and ADNOC Trading, to source additional volumes of crude oil and LPG from their international portfolios.

A number of Indian-flagged vessels have also been impacted by the disruption. According to Shipping Ministry data, there are 28 Indian-flagged vessels in the region – 24 vessels with 677 Indian seafarers to the west of the Strait of Hormuz and four vessels with 101 Indians to the east.

Shipping authorities, ship managers, and seafarer recruitment agencies are actively monitoring the vessels and their crew for safety. They are coordinating with Indian missions and local authorities in the region to provide medical and safety assistance. Advisories have also been issued to Indian vessels to enhance security measures and comply strictly with reporting protocols.