6 min readNew DelhiOct 3, 2025 03:35 AM IST
First published on: Oct 2, 2025 at 08:42 AM IST
India’s Russian oil imports in September declined only slightly compared to August, indicating that the American rhetoric and pressure on New Delhi over its heavy purchases of Moscow’s oil has had no telling impact yet on Indian refiners’ oil purchases. India-bound crude oil loadings at Russian ports in September were also largely stable at August levels, shows provisional tanker data. Although there are evident signs of growing diversification in India’s oil sourcing, the import basket continues to be dominated by Russia, which commanded over one-third share in India’s total oil imports in September.
India’s Russian oil imports in September were 1.60 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, down 5.4 per cent from August levels, according to provisional vessel tracking data from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler. Oil loadings headed for India at Russian ports averaged at 1.52 million bpd, flat on a month-on-month basis. Notably, destinations of sizable volumes of Russian crude loadings in September—over 300,000 bpd—are not known yet, and much of this oil could make its way to India, according to industry watchers.
Contracts for Russian crude supplied to India are usually finalised six-eight weeks before delivery, which means that the volumes imported in September correspond to contracts from July and August. In July, US President Donald Trump began to publicly target India over its Russian oil purchases, and by the first week of August, he announced an additional 25 per cent tariff on most Indian goods as a penalty for buying Russian oil. The additional tariff took effect late August. Russian oil deliveries to India in October are expected to provide a clear picture on whether or not the pressure from the Trump administration has had any significant impact.
“At this stage, it’s unlikely India will make meaningful cuts purely for political signaling. The calculus remains economic. If US pressure escalates, India could make a token reduction of 100,000–200,000 bpd to demonstrate diversification, but a structural cut is unlikely without a formal government directive,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
According to industry sources, the dip in September volumes of Russian oil imports into India appears to have been largely due to a rise in freight cost and a slight narrowing of discounts on Russian crude, not pressure from the US. Going forward, there is potential for deeper discounts on Russian crude, given that a portion of Russia’s refining capacity was hit by Ukrainian drone strikes. With domestic processing of crude going down, Russia would be looking to export more oil, which is bound to add some competitive pressure on the pricing of Russian barrels.
“Honestly, I don’t see India stepping away from Russian supplies anytime soon in the near to mid-term. Russian barrels are still priced cheaper than most other grades India imports. True, the discounts are narrower than the $10–20 per barrel spreads we saw earlier, but even a small price edge matters. Refiners won’t leave a single dollar on the table unless there’s a clear government directive banning Russian imports—similar to how India treated Iranian barrels,” he said.
Indian refiners’ heavy imports of Russian crude are seen as a lever that the Trump administration believes it can use to force the Kremlin’s hand into ending the Ukraine war. Oil exports are the biggest source of revenue for Moscow, and New Delhi is the second-largest buyer of its oil after Beijing. But despite US rhetoric and imposition of 25 per cent secondary tariff over the 25 per cent tariff imposed earlier on most Indian goods, India has shown no signs of backing down on Russian oil imports.
The Indian government has consistently maintained that the country will buy oil from wherever it gets the best deal, as long as the oil is not under sanctions. There are no sanctions on Russian oil; it is only subject to a price cap imposed by the US and its allies that applies if Western shipping and insurance services are used for transporting the oil. India’s public sector refiners have stated that they have not received any signal or directive from the government on the issue, and they will continue to buy Russian oil as long as it remains economically and commercially viable.
New Delhi has termed the Trump administration’s action “unjustified and unreasonable” and said these imports began as its traditional supplies were diverted to Europe, with the US having “actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability”. The Joe Biden administration had encouraged India to increase Russian oil imports following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the West began shunning Moscow’s oil. Russia is a major oil exporter and if a bulk of its oil goes off the market for dearth of buyers, international oil prices could shoot up, something that the US itself did not desire.
Even as India has so far shown no major signs of cutting oil imports from Russia, there has been a stronger push for diversification of supply from various regions—West Asia, Africa, North America, and South America. “What we are seeing is that Indian refiners are gradually looking to expand their basket—not necessarily to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity of flows, and economic flexibility,” Ritolia said.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow’s share in New Delhi’s oil imports was less than 2 per cent. With much of the West snubbing Russian crude following the invasion, Russia began offering discounts on its oil to willing buyers. Indian refiners were quick to avail the opportunity, leading to Russia—earlier a peripheral supplier of oil to India—emerging as India’s biggest source of crude within a matter of months, displacing the traditional West Asian suppliers.
India’s oil import dependency was 87.8 per cent in FY24, 87.4 per cent in FY23, 85.5 per cent in FY22, 84.4 per cent in FY21, 85 per cent in FY20, and 83.8 per cent in FY19. 
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