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Sunday, January 24, 2021

‘Recovery to bank on economic activities, increased mobility’

The approval of the vaccine and initiation of vaccination drives in countries gives strength to optimism on both health and economic fronts despite continuing surge in global cases, the Monthly Economic Review for December said.

By: ENS Economic Bureau | New Delhi | Updated: January 6, 2021 5:16:32 am
The downside risk remains due to the spread of the UK variant and fatigue from social distancing guidelines, the report said.

After the vaccination for the Covid pandemic, resumption in economic activity and increased mobility are expected to lead towards a path of economic recovery, the Finance Ministry said in its monthly economic report. Approval of the long-awaited Covid-19 vaccine provides strength to the optimism on health and economic fronts, it said, adding prospects of faster recovery in emerging economies and potential growth prospects driven by vaccine availability have bolstered market sentiment and vaccine prospects are expected to boost oil demand in the country.

“The effective management of Covid-19 spread despite the festive season and onset of the winter season, combined with sustained improvement in high-frequency indicators and V-shaped recovery along with easing of lockdown restrictions distinguish Indian economy as one riding against the Covid wave,” the report said.

The approval of the vaccine and initiation of vaccination drives in countries gives strength to optimism on both health and economic fronts despite continuing surge in global cases, the Monthly Economic Review for December said. “The approval of the vaccines across the world has ignited optimism for economic recovery in the new year. Post-vaccination, the resumption in economic activity and increased mobility are expected to lead towards a path of economic recovery in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic,” it said.

India has been successful in bending the Covid curve till now, with “reducing weekly/daily infections, rising recovery rate (now at around 95 per cent) and one of the world’s lowest case fatality rates”. The downside risk, however, remains due to the spread of the UK variant and fatigue from social distancing guidelines, it said, adding the emphasis on continued observation of ‘Covid appropriate’ behaviour with due exercise of caution and surveillance needs to be sustained. Citing pickup some of the high-frequency data, the report said the sustained spurt in commercial and industrial activity was further corroborated by continued growth in PMI manufacturing, power demand, persistent improvement in e-way bills generated and highway toll collection rising above pre-Covid levels.

Monthly GST collections attained their record levels in December. Gross GST revenue collected in December 2020 was Rs 1,15,174 crore, the highest since its rollout on July 1, 2017.

The liquidity situation remains comfortable as the accumulation of dollars along with the growth of currency in circulation are enhancing liquidity in the banking system despite the average daily net absorptions by the RBI rising in December, compared to the preceding month, the report said.

The credit growth improved sharply as reflected in strong non-food credit rise and overall credit growth, thanks to the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS), which continues to support robust credit disbursements to MSMEs, with Rs 2.05 lakh crore sanctioned to 80.93 lakh borrowers under ECLGS 1.0.

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