Power demand overshoots government’s projection by 3.3% in April-August

In April-August 2023, actual energy requirement was 0.75% higher than the CEA’s projection, while the deviation was 1.8% during the corresponding period in 2022.

The divergence assumes significance as generation companies and power system operators use the CEA’s short-term projections to plan fuel requirements, including coal stocking, as well as other operational requirements.

A significant deviation from these projections can therefore have implications for planning across the power system.

The unusual demand trend also raised concerns over power availability, with the government moving to take additional measures to maximise generation from available capacity.

Among these measures, the power ministry has directed around 112 captive coal-based power plants to operate at maximum capacity from October 1 to December 31.

‘Trends reverses in September’

Notably, the CEA prepares a short-term power supply plan, known as the Load Generation Balance Report (LGBR), which assesses the anticipated power supply position in the country for each year.

The projections in the LGBR are used to inform various stakeholders, including the Railways, coal companies and other agencies involved in fuel supply and power system operations, allowing them to plan their requirements and resources accordingly.

According to power system operators, the trend started to reverse in September, with rainfall in parts of northern and eastern India bringing some moderation in electricity demand.

“Projection for September was also high, around 161 billion units, and rainfall in eastern and northern parts have reduced some load. So, we have observed some reversal of the trend in September,” a senior official told The Indian Express.

The gap of 3.3% is expected to narrow in the coming months and approach the projected levels over the next two to three months, the official said.

“Normally we are always in excess in the plan. But this time we may be very close to the plan. Since the deviation was there for a longer period of five months, the pace of reduction is likely to be slower,” the official added.

Stress on coal-based sources

The excess energy requirement has pushed up generation from coal-based power plants which are already operating beyond planned levels.

Coal-based sources generated nearly 10% higher electricity between April and August compared to the same period last year.

Between April and August, coal-based sources generated 579,869.38 million (MU) against 527,542.87 MU in the corresponding period last year. Generation from coal-based sources was also the highest recorded for the April-August period in the past three years.

In contrast, hydropower generation fell by over 11% to 75,304.58 MU during April-August period this year, from 84,767.77 MU in the corresponding period last year.

The decline in hydropower generation has tightened the power supply balance, as hydroelectricity plays a crucial role in meeting evening peak demand, particularly during summer when solar generation falls after sunset.

However, rainfall deficit has altered the equation. Earlier, the Ministry of Power informed Parliament that reservoir levels at hydroelectric power plants across the country have fallen to their lowest for the April 1-July 30 period since 2023, as erratic weather conditions linked to the effects of El Niño reduced water availability for power generation.

The increased reliance on coal-based generation is also reflected in the depletion of stocks at thermal power plants, with inventories falling to 18.6 million tonnes as of September 30 from around 55 million tonnes at the beginning of April.