3 min readMumbaiAug 8, 2023 09:07 AM IST
First published on: Aug 8, 2023 at 05:25 AM IST
The cost of preparing a thali meal at home rose sharply for the third month in a row in July, and also inched up for the first time this fiscal when compared to the last year, mainly due to soaring tomato prices, says a Crisil report.
The cost of vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis rose 34 per cent and 13 per cent on-month, respectively, in July. Of the 34 per cent rise in the cost of a vegetarian thali, 25 per cent can be attributed solely to the price of tomato, which rose 233 per cent on month to Rs 110 per kg in July from Rs 33 per kg in June, Crisil said.
Thali is an Indian-style meal made up of a selection of various dishes – vegetarian and non-vegetarian — which are served on a platter.
The prices of onion and potato increased 16 per cent and 9 per cent on month, respectively, contributing further to the increase in cost. “Chili and cumin also became more expensive, their prices rising 69 per cent and 16 per cent on-month, respectively, in July,” Crisil said.
However, given the lower quantities of these ingredients used in a thali, their cost contribution remains lower than some of the vegetable crops, according to Crisil. The cost of a non-vegetarian thali rose at a slower pace as the price of broilers, comprising more than 50 per cent of the cost, likely declined 3-5 per cent on-month in July.
“A 2 per cent on-month decline in the price of vegetable oil provided some respite from the increase in cost of both thalis,” it said.
Crisil said the average cost of preparing a thali at home is calculated based on input prices prevailing in north, south, east, and west India. Monthly change reflects the impact on the common man’s expenditure. The data also reveals the ingredients (cereals, pulses, broilers, vegetables, spices, edible oil, cooking gas) driving changes in the cost of a thali, it said.
Meanwhile, economists don’t see any decline in inflation in the near future. In the June monetary policy, the RBI revised its FY2024 inflation projection to 5.1 per cent from 5.2 per cent announced in April. It said CPI inflation is expected to be at 4.6 per cent Q1; 5.2 per cent in Q2; 5.4 per cent in Q3; and 5.2 per cent in Q4.
For July, inflation is likely to rise in the range of 6-6.8 per cent from 4.81 per cent in June. Some economists believe that the RBI will revise its FY2024 CPI inflation projection upwards.
Deutsche Bank says that the full-year CPI inflation forecast will be revised to 5.2 per cent from the current 5.1 per cent. However, Bank of Baroda Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis says that the FY2024 inflation forecast will remain unchanged but the RBI may revise the Q2 CPI projection.
“Even if the Q2 inflation number is changed, it might not be very significant. I don’t think the RBI will do it (change the FY24 inflation forecast) this time. They will probably wait for a few more data points before revising it,” he says.
Thali is an Indian-style meal made up of a selection of various dishes – vegetarian and non-vegetarian -- which are served on a platter. (Representational Image)
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