As the energy shock waves from the war in West Asia travels deeper, Indian manufacturers, ranging from steel, aluminium, textiles and even alcoholic beverages, are beginning to report operational disruptions on account of surging freight rates, stuck shipments, gas shortages and payment issues.
Much of this originates, either directly or indirectly, from the trade disruption caused due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Indian manufacturing sector is grappling with uncertainty due to cargo stuck at different stages of the supply chain, which could raise the cost of operations and even limit production hours.
A Mumbai-headquartered leading textile brand told The Indian Express that they were facing a severe shortage of raw materials and were only left with 30 days of stock as the West Asia conflict had delayed their import cargo.
The company executive, who did not wish to be named, said that import consignment of their key raw materials, flax, which they import from Europe, especially Belgium and France, is stuck due to conflict in West Asia and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“One of our consignments has been stuck up in Jebel Ali for the last 20 days. It reached there on February 28, and until today, we don’t have any clue when that consignment will come to India. Another two to three consignments are on the way to the UAE. One is going to Al-Faqan, and another is going to Khalifa,” the executive said.
While Al-Faqan, located on the eastern side, is unlikely to pose any issues, the shipment heading to Khalifa would have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and could therefore face disruptions, the executive said, adding that the company could run out of stock for its raw materials if they didn’t get the consignments in transit in the next 10 days.
Ajay Joshi, a chemical-sector analyst and founder of an eponymous advisory firm for chemical companies, said the West Asia conflict is not just an oil story; it is a raw-material shock that will travel through seventeen different chemical value chains before reaching the Indian consumer.
“The industries most acutely at risk are agriculture, construction, and FMCG. For Indian farmers, the most dangerous chain is sulphur (& sulphuric acid). The prices have increased by 80% on a year-on-year basis,” Joshi said.
Roughly 35% of globally traded sulphur originates from West Asia; any disruption tightens sulphuric acid, which then squeezes phosphoric acid, and ultimately hits Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) and Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) fertiliser prices – right into the Kharif sowing window, Joshi said. “This is food-security critical, not just a commodity pricing issue,” he said.
One of India’s largest aluminium producers has halted output of extruded aluminium, a value-added aluminium product, due to a gas shortage in the wake of supply disruptions.
The Aluminium Extrusion Manufacturers Association of India (ALEMA) has also urged the government for urgent relief measures as the industry is grappling with severe LPG and PNG shortages triggered by the escalating West Asia crisis.
ALMA represents nearly 250 of India’s 450 aluminium extrusion companies – with 90 per cent being MSMEs. According to the association, without intervention, the capital-intensive sector risks defaulting on working capital and term loans.
The Brewers Association of India (BAI) said that the rising costs due to the war in West Asia may make beer supplies unviable in some states. The brewing industry in India is currently facing high cost and supply challenges due to the ongoing war and the resultant global energy crisis, BAI said.
“Just in the last 3 weeks, primary inputs have seen sharp inflation. Glass bottle prices have risen by approximately 20%, paper cartons have increased by almost 100%, and the cost of materials such as LDPE, BOPP and adhesives have gone up by 20–25% in prices. Freight and logistics costs have also risen by 10%. The rupee has fallen by almost 3% against the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions, adding to the cost of imports. The collective impact of these increases is estimated to be around 12-15% more in costs for brewers,” the association said.
Severe shortage of commercial LNG supply has put glass bottle manufacturers also under significant strain, and they too face partial or full shutdown of units. Supplies of glass and cans may be severely strained in the coming months, the association said, adding that the cost increases and inadequate packaging material supplies are likely to affect beer supplies in the upcoming summer season.
A stainless steel manufacturer said that the challenge that they are facing is mainly with the seamless pipes and tubes division, where LPG is used.
“Also the prices of the gas that we are still getting are also expensive, so the process cost has increased a bit in this period of time,” the executive said, adding that they are not affected in the rolling and melting divisions, since they use electric furnaces for it.
He said if the war and resulting supply chain disruptions persist, leading to material shortages, prices are likely to rise. “In the long term, prices will definitely increase,” he said.
Roughly 35% of globally traded sulphur originates from West Asia; any disruption tightens sulphuric acid, which then squeezes phosphoric acid, and ultimately hits Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) and Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) fertiliser prices – right into the Kharif sowing window, Joshi said. “This is food-security critical, not just a commodity pricing issue,” he said.
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