India’s Russian oil imports at record high, set to remain core of crude diet

“India’s imports remained strong through June, supported by continued discounts and steady refinery demand. Russian barrels remain competitive against global benchmarks. Regardless of whether the US waiver is extended, we expect India’s imports of Russian crude to remain robust, even if not at record-high levels,” said Sumit Ritolia, manager, modelling & refining at Kpler.

India’s crude import strategy has shifted sharply since March 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened West Asian oil flows and increased freight risks. Russian crude remains the backbone of India’s import slate, while refiners have diversified aggressively toward North American and Venezuelan barrels to offset the drop in supplies from the Gulf.

About 40% of India’s crude imports usually came through the Strait of Hormuz, and most of that supply has effectively been offline due to the war. Hardly any oil has been imported from Iraq—India’s second-largest source of crude—for almost four months now. Iraq depends almost entirely on the Strait of Hormuz to export its oil. Oil imports from the rest of West Asia have also fallen significantly, although Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been able to export oil to India as they have pipeline infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for some of their oil output.

Although an initial peace pact has been inked between the US and Iran—which could meaningfully bring back the West Asian oil barrels back —and the US sanctions waiver on Russian oil imports also expired this week, analysts expect India’s crude mix to remain broadly unchanged as supply security and economics continuing to favour Russian and non-Strait of Hormuz barrels. It is not clear yet if the US will extend the waiver further; there are indications that it may not do so given the expectation of Gulf oil barrels returning to the market.

“Even with the waiver expiring, I do not see a clear path to a dramatic reduction in Russian crude flows to India. First, the volumes are simply too large to replace quickly. Second, the Middle Eastern bottleneck around the Strait will probably take months to normalise fully. Third, the Asian view of Russian crude has changed: it is now increasingly treated as a reliable base-load supply source rather than an opportunistic discounted barrel,” said Abu Dhabi-based energy analyst Natalia Katona.

Moreover, the initial peace pact between the US and Iran is being seen as shaky and the market appears to be unwilling to fully write off the risks yet. Experts flagged the uncertainty surrounding the durability of the peace deal, lingering security worries, and the time required for shipowners and insurers to fully regain confidence as key concerns.

With global oil supplies hit due to the effective halt in vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, the US issued sanctions waivers for Russian oil. These were aimed at allowing more barrels of oil to reach the international market and exerting downward pressure on spiralling oil prices. Experts saw such moves as part of the Donald Trump administration’s effort to prevent a sustained spike in international oil prices—and the consequent rise in domestic fuel prices in the US—given the midterm elections later this year.

But the Russian oil waiver attracted criticism from various sections in the US. Critics argued that it led to a windfall for Moscow, which would fund its war effort in Ukraine.

While government officials have maintained that India didn’t need a US waiver to buy Russian oil, industry experts said that the waiver indeed helped. It enabled Indian refiners to be able to take deliveries of Russian oil even on tankers sanctioned or blocked by the US, and they could deal directly with sanctioned Russian companies like Rosneft and Lukoil without the risk of attracting secondary sanctions from Washington. Moreover, it temporarily removed the friction between Washington and New Delhi over the latter’s hefty purchases of Moscow’s crude.

Although India was buying significant volumes of Russian crude even before the West Asia war began, the quantity had reduced notably over the months immediately preceding the conflict, evidently due to the US imposing sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, and amid trade pact negotiations with Washington. The US made a meaningful reduction in India’s Russian oil imports a prerequisite for scrapping its 25% additional penal tariff on New Delhi.

In February, Indian refiners had imported just over 1 million bpd of Russian crude, almost half of the 2025 peak of over 2 million bpd. Even with the significant reduction in volumes, Russia was India’s largest source of crude in February, accounting for about fifth of its total oil imports.

Then, with the war in West Asia raging and the sanctions waiver in place, oil imports from Russia nearly doubled to 2 million bpd in March, accounting for almost 45% of India’s total oil imports for the month, while imports from West Asia crashed. In April, imports of Russian crude moderated to 1.6 million bpd, which was mainly due to the Nayara Energy refinery—a heavy consumer of Russian crude—taking a maintenance shutdown. Imports of Russian crude so far in May recovered to 1.9 million bpd, Kpler data shows.