LNG imports rise as US, Nigeria and Oman offset Hormuz volume loss

The country’s LNG imports in May-July rose 15.4% over the year-ago period to 7.08 million tonnes, according to an analysis of ship-tracking data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler. In March-April, the import volumes had declined by almost 13% from the year-ago period.

India depends on LNG imports to meet about half of its natural gas requirement, and about 60% of those imports came through the Strait of Hormuz, primarily from Qatar and also the UAE. The two Gulf countries are major LNG exporters at the global level as well.

Vessel movement through the strait — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea — has been heavily disrupted due to the conflict. The strait is a major transit point for energy flows, usually accounting for a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.

With 2.19 million tonnes of supply, the US was the top source of LNG for India in May-July, followed by Nigeria at 1.31 million tonnes, Oman at 1.22 million tonnes, and Angola at 0.80 million tonnes, the data shows.

LNG imports from the US jumped 252.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), while those from Oman were higher by 340.9%. Imports from Nigeria and Angola were higher by 123.8% and 71.3%, respectively.

In 2025, the average monthly LNG imports from the US were just 0.2 million tonnes, while those from Nigeria, Oman, and Angola were 0.1 million tonnes, 0.2 million tonnes, and 0.1 million tonnes, respectively.

Notably, after crashing in March, April and May, India’s LNG imports from the UAE recovered in June and July despite the exports being dependent on the strait for transits. For May-July, LNG imports from the UAE were down 34.4% y-o-y at 0.55 million tonnes, while supplies from Qatar plummeted 91.3% to 0.23 million tonnes. In 2025, the average monthly LNG import volumes from Qatar stood at 1 million tonnes, followed by imports from the UAE at 0.3 million tonnes.

According to industry insiders and experts, the UAE has been able to export sizable cargoes despite the Hormuz blockade using tactics like switching off the LNG tankers’ transponders to avoid detection and capitalising on short windows of opportunity based on maritime security assessments in the region.

While Qatar has also exported some cargoes using this strategy, the UAE has been far more aggressive, displaying a higher risk-tolerance. Both suppliers also benefited from the partial recovery in transits via the strait in the three-week period after the US and Iran inked an initial peace pact on June 17. The pact crumbled after the first week of July, after which vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz again reduced to a trickle.

“Indian market has shown more resilience, since the last dip in March-April, for July 2026 alone we have almost 16% higher year-on-year imports. Supplier mix remains dominated by the US and Oman, supplying about 30% and 20% of the total LNG supply in India respectively. Although the gas supply restrictions (imposed to ensure adequate supplies to critical sectors) were removed in July, we have seen stronger demand throughout May-June as well, showing the resilience of the market even in high-price situations,” said Sonal Ranjan, LNG and natural gas analyst at Kpler.

Although high and largely inelastic demand from critical sectors like CGD and fertilisers has ensured that LNG imports remain strong, a few other sectors, most notably power and ceramics, added to the demand due to the weather and the broader fuel supply constraints.

Given the continuing limitations in supplies via the strait, LNG prices are likely to remain higher and could push some of the more price-sensitive sectors to alternative fuels.

“We do expect the lack of LNG availability pushing the Asian spot LNG prices higher near the $19-20 (per million British thermal unit) range through the second half of the year. So, this of course is expected to constrain the affordability of the market, with price sensitive sectors like industry and power sector expected to see demand destruction as LNG loses its competitiveness against alternative fuels,” Ranjan said.

On the LNG availability scenario going forward, she said India can definitely secure essential replacement cargoes, but availability cannot be considered unconstrained given the persistent crisis around the Strait of Hormuz.

“In the current situation, we are now estimating a prolonged-disruption scenario. So this lower LNG availability will force India to compete with Europe and Northeast Asia for a relatively smaller pool of LNG volumes now,” Ranjan said.