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Wednesday, June 23, 2021

‘Second wave peak in June may lead to growth falling to 8.2%’

If the second wave peaks in May-end, the GDP expansion will come at 9.8 per cent, and can go down to 8.2 per cent if peaking happens in June-end, it said.

By: ENS Economic Bureau | Mumbai |
May 11, 2021 3:00:00 am
Crisil said the lockdowns are less restrictive right now, but the expanse of area under such measures is increasing with the ingress of the virus into the rural areas where healthcare infrastructure is weak.

Rating firm Crisil has warned that India’s economic growth may slip to 8.2 per cent if the second wave peaks in end of June, but maintained its baseline estimate of 11 per cent uptick in activity.

It said the risks to its 11 per cent growth forecast are “firmly tilted downwards”, and presented two likely scenarios. If the second wave peaks in May-end, the GDP expansion will come at 9.8 per cent, and can go down to 8.2 per cent if the peaking happens in June-end, it said. The economy contracted by 7.6 per cent in FY21, because of the national lockdown. There has been a slew of downward revisions in growth estimates after the emergence of the second wave, which has overwhelmed the healthcare apparatus and also led to localised lockdowns across the country.

Crisil said the lockdowns are less restrictive right now, but the expanse of area under such measures is increasing with the ingress of the virus into the rural areas where healthcare infrastructure is weak.

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