The latest set of collection numbers at over Rs 1 lakh crore under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) may have brought in some cheer for the government in October, but lingering revenue concerns remain. The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has carried out an analysis of the revenue collections vis-a-vis the internal targets, wherein it has shown that among the 21 central GST zones, only two zones —Bhubaneswar and Guwahati—have posted a gain of 3.5 per cent and 29.3 per cent, respectively, when compared with the moving target of Rs 2,07,013 crore for central assessees in April-September.
Rest of the GST zones have posted a revenue shortfall with respect to their moving targets ranging from 3.1 per cent to 16.1 per cent, the data showed. Overall, the Centre’s mop-up has been 9.2 per cent short of its moving target for April-September, the first half of this financial year, while states are lagging by 9.7 per cent.
Cumulatively for both central and state assessees, the CBIC had set the moving target for April-September at Rs 4,65,933 crore or 49.09 per cent of the full year’s target of Rs 9,50,000 crore. The combined target for both Centre and states at Rs 9,50,000 crore for this financial year is attributable only to GST levied on domestic supplies. Over and above this, the CBIC estimates to mop-up around Rs 3-3.5 lakh crore from Integrated GST (IGST) on imports and cess collected on imports, taking the total target for the year at around Rs 13 lakh crore. In absolute terms, the Centre has fallen short by Rs 19,148 crore of its moving target of Rs 2,07,013 crore in April-September, while the shortfall of states is Rs 25,177 crore of the moving target of Rs 2,58,920 crore, taking the total GST shortfall with respect to the moving target to Rs 44,325 crore, CBIC data showed.
When compared to the full year’s GST target from domestic supplies, the Centre’s mop-up has been 4.5 per cent short of the total target, while states are lagging by 4.8 per cent. The Centre has garnered 44.5 per cent or Rs 1,87,865 crore for April-September, out of its total GST target of Rs 4,21,700 crore for central assessees, while states have collected 44.2 per cent or Rs 2,33,743 crore of their total target for the year of Rs 5,28,300 crore for states assessees, the data showed. The zones of Thiruvananthapuram and Jaipur have registered the highest shortfall as against the total target for central assessees at 7.9 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, it showed. For states assessees, when compared with the moving target of Rs 2,58,920 crore for April-September, then only Bhubaneswar has posted a revenue gain, while rest of the zones are facing a shortfall ranging from 3.4 per cent to 20.5 per cent.
Government officials said that the targets were set by the CBIC earlier this year for monitoring the progress of GST collections in various field formations. The revenue shortfall for states assessees is, however, different from the other way to calculate revenue shortfall that is meant for compensation payout purposes, one of the officials explained. “GST shortfall for Centre in April-September is 4.5 per cent and that for states is 4.8 per cent as against their targets set in the beginning of the financial year. These numbers are, however, restricted to domestic supplies,” an official said.
Another official said the revenue collections in H2, are usually higher than the collections in first half of the fiscal. “As of now, we are closely monitoring the situation. The latest numbers were good and the expectation is that the mop-up will improve going ahead,” the official said.