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The government on Tuesday said it is not possible to pinpoint the impact of demonetisation on GDP as economic growth is contingent on a number of factors. “The economic growth of a country depends on a number of factors including structural, external, fiscal and monetary factors (which is partly reflected by demonetisation). Therefore it is not possible to pinpoint the impact of demonetisation on India’s GDP,” Minister of State for Finance Arjun Ram Meghwal said in a written reply to Rajya Sabha.
Meghwal, however, added that as per the second advance estimates released by the Central Statistics Office(CSO) on February 28 based mostly on information for the first nine to ten months of 2016-17, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) at constant market prices is estimated to be 7.1 per cent in 2016-17.
The CSO had projected the same growth rate in the first advance estimates released on January 6 based mostly on the information for the first seven to eight months of the current fiscal.
As per the quarterly estimates released by the CSO, the growth of GDP at constant (2011-12) market price was 7.2 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, during the first, second, and third quarters of the financial year 2016-17.
The minister noted that the projection for economic growth of India for the current financial year made by many international and domestic agencies after demonetisation were in general lower than their corresponding projection prior to demonetisation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook in October 2016 had projected India’s growth for 2016-17 at 7.6 per cent, which was revised to 6.6 per cent in January 2017 Update.
Other organisations like the World Bank and a number of credit rating agencies also reduced their GDP growth projections for 2016-17 post-demonetisation.
The government on November 8 scrapped high value notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000, pulling out 86 per cent of the total currency in circulation.