The Indian economy is expected to witness an over three-fold expansion by 2031-32 growing to Rs 469 lakh crore, considering an average growth rate of 8 per cent over the next 15 years, Niti Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Sunday. He was briefing the media about his presentation at the think-tank’s governing council meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attended by state chief ministers.
“Our base GDP is large. If we grow at 8 per cent average rate for the next 15 years, our GDP will be Rs 469 lakh crore by 2030 (around $7.25 trillion),” Panagariya said.
According to his presentation, the GDP is expected to grow by Rs 332 lakh crore in the next 15 years, compared with an expansion of Rs 91 lakh crore in the past 15 years.
“(In my presentation) I said in 1999-2000, we were Rs 46 lakh crore (economy) at 2015-16 prices. We added Rs 91 lakh crore to this by 2015-16. We came to Rs 137 lakh crore by 2015-16… a little lower than $2.1 trillion,” Panagariya said. “We could grow at 8 per cent in rupee and 10 per cent in dollar terms,” he clarified.
According to the presentation, India’s per capita GDP is expected to rise to Rs 3,14,776 in 2031-32 from Rs 1,06,589 in 2015-16, while the country’s urban population is also expected to rise by 22 crore by 2031-32 to 60 crore, against 37.7 crore in 2011.
Furthermore, Panagariya also noted that the central and state expenditure is expected to rise by Rs 92 lakh crore to Rs 130 lakh crore in 2031-32 from Rs 38 lakh crore in 2015-16. The total and the per capita GDP have been calculated at 2015-16 prices.
In the presentation, he also outlined the three-year action plan, the draft of which is in final stages. The action plan, he said, was a part of the seven-year National Development Agenda, which in turn was a part of the 15-year vision document. Even as the new process replaces for the five-year plans, it has not been put into place despite the twelfth five-year plan ending on March 31.
Panagariya said that in the coming week, work would begin on holding final consultations over the action plan, which has identified more than 300 specific action points, covering all the major sectors. The three-year plan for the years between 2017-18 and 2019-20 will coincide with recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission stability to give stability to the funding estimates of both the Centre and states.
The three-year plan, he said, would comprise seven overarching themes. The first part would look at the revenue and expenditure of the said period. In this, the Niti Aayog would highlight the growth outlook, necessary resources, and expenditure allocation for the duration.
The second part would have action points for transformation of agriculture, industry and services sector. For the 2017-18 to 2019-20 period, the action plan would aim at doubling farmers income, and creating well-paid jobs in the industrial and services sectors. The third part is expected focus on regional development and would form regional strategies for urban development and rural transformation.
The fourth part talks about growth enablers such as transport connectivity, digital connectivity, public-private partnerships, energy, science and technology, innovation and entrepreneurship. The fifth part would focus on governance issues such as tax policies and administration, rule of law, and pro-competition policies and regulations.
The sixth part looks at social sector issues such as health, education and skill development, while the final seventh part would discuss sustainability issues like environment and management of water resources.
The fine print of these themes would be disclosed once the final draft is made public by Niti Aayog. However, Panagariya did not give a specific timeline for when the action plan would come into effect.