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Inflation seen at 0.09 pct on April 11

The annual inflation rate is forecast to have eased to just above zero in second week of April.

Written by Reuters | Mumbai | Published: April 22, 2009 2:39:48 pm

The annual inflation rate is forecast to have eased to just above zero in second week of April,a Reuters poll showed,and is soon expected to turn negative.

The median forecast of 11 analysts is for a 0.09 per cent rise in the wholesale price index in the 12 months to April 11,down from a 0.18 per cent rise the previous week.

If realised,it would be the lowest reading of India’s wholesale price-based inflation rate since annual records started in 1977/78,and comes about eight months after inflation peaked at 12.91 per cent in early August.

The annual inflation rate will fall even though the wholesale price index is expected to have risen slightly from a week earlier,reflecting the sharper moves in the index a year ago when prices were accelerating.

The index had been on a downward trend since last September,after a fall in global commodity prices,but steadied in March.

The data is due around noon (0630 GMT) on Thursday.

Analysts said annual inflation was likely turn negative at the next reading. In a policy review on Tuesday,the RBI said negative WPI inflation should not be seen as deflation for policy purposes.

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