India is likely to overtake the United States and become the world’s second-largest economy by 2030, a British financial services firm has predicted.
According to Standard Chartered Plc, China will assume the top spot by dislodging the US, which will fall to third on the list behind the two Asian giants.
Indonesia is predicted to vault into the fourth slot while Turkey will round out the top five.
“Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies,” Standard Chartered economists led by David Mann wrote in a note.
As per the economists, India is projected to accelerate to 7.8 per cent by the 2020s while China’s will moderate to 5 per cent by 2030 reflecting a natural slowdown given the economy’s size.
The firm also predicted that the new global order will see current emerging markets occupy seven of the top 10 spots.
Among other findings by the economists of Standard Chartered, it was found that in the emerging markets, the waning reform momentum weighs on productivity growth; with a majority of the world’s population entering the middle-class income group by 2020, it is at a tipping point; the effects of the rapid population aging trend of China and many economies will be countered by the middle-class driven by urbanization and education.