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India’s 2020-21 GDP seen contracting 7.7%: Govt’s first advance estimate

As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the agriculture sector growth for FY 2020-21 is estimated at 3.4 per cent against 4.0 per cent in FY 2019-20. Also, mining sector estimate stood at (-)12.4 per cent for 2020-21 from 3.1 per cent in 2019-20.

A farmer harvests rice by hand at a field in Gaya district, Bihar, India, on Friday, Oct. 23, 2020. (Photographer: Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg)

India’s real GDP in the ongoing financial year 2020-21 is seen contracting by 7.7 per cent from a growth rate of 4.2 per cent in 2019-20, according to the first advance estimates of GDP released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

The contraction in the economy is mainly on account of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

“Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of Rs 134.40 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.66 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2020,” the MoSPI release said.

The Real GVA at Basic Prices is estimated at Rs 123.39 lakh crore in 2020-21, as against Rs 133.01 lakh crore in 2019-20, thereby showing a contraction of 7.2 percent.

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According to the MoSPI data, the agriculture sector growth for FY 2020-21 is estimated at 3.4 per cent against 4.0 per cent in FY 2019-20. Also, mining sector estimate stood at (-)12.4 per cent for 2020-21 from 3.1 per cent in 2019-20.

In case of manufacturing sector, FY 2020-21 estimate stood at (-)9.4 per cent compared to 0.03 per cent in FY 2019-20, while the construction sector estimate for 2020-21 stood at (-)12.6 per cent vs 1.3 per cent year ago. (refer table below)

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)

The economy contracted 23.9 per cent in the first quarter (Q1) and by 7.5 per cent in the second quarter.

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Generally, the first advance estimates of GDP of a financial year are released before the Union Budget. This data helps in the budget-making process.

First published on: 07-01-2021 at 06:05:08 pm
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