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GDP growth in second quarter of financial year 2018 likely to recover significantly: SBI note

After a disappointing Quarter-1 which saw India registering 5.7 per cent GDP growth, the second quarter growth of financial year 2018  is likely to trend higher and might be in at 6.3 per cent to 6.4 per cent band (GVA at 6.1-6.2%) with a downward bias, according to a SBI note

By: ENS Economic Bureau | New Delhi | Published: November 30, 2017 12:39:15 pm
public sector banks, state bank of india, sbi, economic growth, fiscal growth, gdp, india economy, business news, indian express news FY18 GDP growth could touch 7 per cent on the back of revisions in GDP growth in the financial year 2017.

After a disappointing Quarter-1 which saw India registering 5.7 per cent GDP growth, the second quarter growth of financial year 2018  is likely to trend higher and might be in at 6.3 per cent to 6.4 per cent band (GVA at 6.1-6.2%) with a downward bias, according to a SBI note

Signs of improvement

* 2,795 listed corporates have declared their Q2FY18 quarterly results, it may nevertheless significantly improve upon second quarter of financial year of 2018 GVA number of -8.4 per cent.

* As Corporate GVA & Manufacturing GVA are closely related this will surely push up Manufacturing GVA from 1.2 per cent logged in Q1FY18

Sectors doing good

* Air Transport Service sector is firing on all cylinders with both top line and bottom line grew  at 28 per cent and 231 per cent respectively during Q2FY18 as compared to Q2FY17. Other sectors like Non Ferro Metals, Mining, Automobiles, Agro Chemicals etc. have also performed well during the same period

Full-year forecast

* FY18 GDP growth could touch 7 per cent on the back of revisions in GDP growth in the financial year 2017. Revision of data is a part of statistical accuracy In India. Provisional GDP data gets revised two times before it comes to its final shape.

SBI composite index

* The yearly SBI Composite Index for Nov’17 remained stagnant at 53.0 (Moderate Growth), while the M-o-M improved significantly to 51.22 (Low Growth) in Nov’17, compared 48.4 (Low Decline) in Oct’17

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