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Asian Development Bank: India to grow at 7.4% in 2017-18

China economy is expected to drop to 6.5 per cent in 2017 and 6.2 per cent in 2018, slowing from 6.7 per cent in 2016-17.

By: ENS Economic Bureau | New Delhi |
April 7, 2017 1:36:00 am

As the note ban impact dissipates, India will grow at 7.4 per cent in the current financial year and 7.6 per cent in 2018-19, cementing its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, ahead of China, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast on Thursday. In its Asian Development Outlook, ADB also said: “The impact of the demonetisation of high-value bank notes is dissipating as the replacement banknotes enter circulation. Stronger consumption and fiscal reforms are also expected to improve business confidence and investment prospects in the country.”

The country is expected to have clocked a growth rate of 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, despite apprehensions that the note ban, announced in November last year, has dented consumption as well as investment.

ADB’s forecast India is better than that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2017-18. In its forecast in January, the IMF said the Indian economy will grow 7.2 per cent in 2017-18 and 7.7 per cent in the next fiscal. In January, the World Bank also predicted India’s growth to rebound to 7.6 per cent in 2017-18 and 7.8 per cent in 2018-19. However, for 2016-17, the IMF and the Bank have already trimmed their India growth forecasts to 6.6 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, compared with the Central Statistics Organisation’s prediction of 7.1 per cent.

As for China, the ADB  report said, the growth in the world’s second-largest economy is expected to drop to
6.5 per cent in 2017 and 6.2 per cent in 2018, slowing from 6.7 per cent in 2016-17. It said that the efforts of the Chinese government to stick to financial and fiscal stability would continue to be a modest drag on growth going forward. However, the continued structural reform would help in maintaining growth in the government’s target range there.

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