China’s solar grip tightens — Cell imports more than double; module imports barely dip despite curbs

“The increase in domestic solar PV module manufacturing capacity seems to have contributed to increase in import of solar PV cells,” the ministry said. While India’s solar cell manufacturing capacity has also grown — from 9 GW in March 2024 to 25 GW now — it still falls short of meeting the total demand for modules.

‘Continued module imports due to ALMM exemptions’

The MNRE, which reimposed the ALMM order in FY25 after keeping it in abeyance during FY24, added that “several exemptions” exist under the order. These include projects where the last bid submission date was before April 10, 2021, certain net metering projects applied for before October 2022, behind-the-meter captive projects, and solar installations for the production of export-oriented green hydrogen.

“Despite ALMM being in force, these exemptions seem to be the reason for continued import of solar PV modules,” the ministry said. In a letter dated March 3, 2025, the MNRE asked state governments to strictly enforce the ALMM order for solar PV modules, except in cases where projects qualify for exemptions listed above or have been specifically exempted by the ministry or an authorised agency.

Overall, solar cell imports rose 88 per cent — from 2.69 billion units worth Rs 15,335 crore in FY24 to 5.06 billion units worth Rs 13,905 crore in FY25 — as China’s share increased from 70 to 90 per cent. Module imports, meanwhile, fell 15 per cent, from 48.48 million panels (Rs 36,134 crore) to 40.99 million (Rs 18,263 crore).

Domestic cell capacity expected to surge

Typically, solar cells are manufactured using wafers made from polysilicon ingots. By 2030, India aims to ramp up its solar cell manufacturing capacity to 100 GW and wafer capacity to 40 GW — a steep rise from the current 2 GW.

Amit Paithankar, chief executive officer at Waaree Energies Ltd, India’s largest solar module manufacturer, said there will be “a substantial growth in cell capacity” in the coming years.

“Module manufacturing has taken off because ALMM for modules was introduced earlier and has been steadily enforced. ALMM for cells is also coming next year – that is the stated policy. So, in a very steadfast manner, cell production will keep increasing and the import content of cells will keep going down,” he told The Indian Express.

The ALMM order for solar PV cells will take effect from June 1, 2026. “When you put ALMM for modules, there’s a wave — massive capacity gets set up in 2-2.5 years. Then, with ALMM for cells, too, you’ll see a wave. There will always be a time shift. When there’s an ALMM for ingots and wafers, you’ll see a similar wave happen,” Paithankar added.

Dumping of Chinese cells remains a concern

A key challenge to scaling up domestic cell manufacturing, however, is sustained price dumping from China. While cell imports from China rose 141 per cent in quantity between FY24 and FY25, their value increased only 34 per cent — indicating a sharp fall in per-unit prices.

The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), India’s trade watchdog, is currently investigating an anti-dumping case on Chinese solar cell imports.

Sujoy Ghosh, managing director of First Solar India, which along with other manufacturers initiated the DGTR investigation, said, “Multiple governments have found evidence of Chinese companies using anti-competitive measures, including dumping, to decimate international competition. Our view is that dumping, whether from China or through its Belt and Road Initiative partners in Southeast Asia, undermines India’s goal of securing its energy technology supply chains, and must be investigated and firmly addressed.”

“The consequences of China’s systemic overcapacity are plain to see from the financials of the largest Chinese solar manufacturers. Moreover, their financial results also appear to reflect the practice of selling products at prices below their cost of production,” he added. In recent quarters, several Chinese solar companies have reported heavy losses amid industry overcapacity and softening demand.

Chinese dominance in wafer-making equipment a hurdle

Government and industry sources say another challenge in fully integrating the polysilicon-to-cell value chain is China’s dominance in wafer-making equipment, which remains restricted for export to India. Sumant Sinha, chief executive of ReNew, said a solution is possible through a “G2G (government-to-government) conversation” and that it is “impractical” to make the equipment in India as of now.

Paithankar said there is strong collaboration between various companies in India, China, and elsewhere when it comes to equipment. “While we have good relationships with companies in China, we’re also constantly looking at how to diversify that part of the supply chain,” he added.

As an example of efforts to look beyond China, Vinay Rustagi, chief business officer at Premier Energies Ltd, said the company is setting up a 2 GW wafer manufacturing plant through a joint venture with Taiwan’s SAS, among the world’s largest silicon wafer manufacturers.

Some manufacturers are using alternative technologies. “First Solar doesn’t rely on the crystalline silicon ecosystem that is currently monopolized in China, and we have invested in creating our own manufacturing ecosystem over the past 25 years… As a matter of fact, it took us just 19 months to build 3.3 gigawatts of vertically integrated nameplate manufacturing capacity,” Ghosh said.

The Arizona-headquartered company, which operates a plant in Chennai, manufactures CdTe thin-film PV modules using a differentiated semiconductor and production process. “Our advanced, highly differentiated manufacturing process allows us to transform a sheet of glass into ready-to-ship thin film solar panels in approximately four hours,” Ghosh said.