Ahead of the Union Budget, the Economic Survey on Friday termed external environment as challenging but projected a 7-7.5 per cent GDP growth rate in the next fiscal which could accelerate to eight per cent in a couple of years.
Following are the highlights of Economic Survey 2015-16, tabled in Parliament today:
1. GDP growth next fiscal to be between 7-7.75%
2. Growth this fiscal to be 7.6%, long-term potential at 8-10% if exports grow rapidly.
3. India haven of stability amidst gloomy global landscape.
4. Crude oil prices to be about USD 35 a barrel next fiscal, as against USD 45 this year.
5. Projects retail inflation at 4.5-5% for 2016-17.
6. Low inflation takes hold, price stability has increased.
7. Pay Commission implementation not to destabilise prices.
8. Proposes widening of tax net from 5.5% of earning individuals to more than 20%
9. Challenging external environment to cast shadow on economic policies.
10. 3.9% fiscal deficit target achievable this year, coming year to be challenging.
11. Subsidy bill to be below 2% of GDP next fiscal.
12. Concerned over delay in GST Bill.
13. Balance sheets of corporate, banks remain stressed; need 4Rs: Recognition, Recapitalisation, Resolution and Reform.
14. PSU banks’ capital need at Rs 1.8 lakh crore by FY19.
15. Current account deficit at 1-1.5%, forex reserves at USD 351.5 bn in mid-Feb.
16. Services sector growth in 2015-16 seen at 9.2%
17. Suggests revival of domestic demand as foreign capital outflow likely.
18. Sees good performance by industrial, infrastructure, corporate sectors due to recent reform.
19. More investment in health, education; focus on agriculture.
20. Government tax revenues to be higher than budgeted.
21. Exports slowdown to continue; pick up in next fiscal.
22. India should resist protectionist measures in trade.
23. Suggests reform package for fertiliser sector.