Pakistan extends ban on Indian airlines, aircraft from using its airspace till January 24; India likely to reciprocate

With the relations between New Delhi and Islamabad worsening after the Pahalgam terror attack in April, Pakistan initiated an airspace closure on April 24. Initially for one month, this ban prohibited Indian aircraft and airlines from overflying Pakistani airspace. India responded on April 30, closing its airspace to Pakistani aircraft and airlines. Since then, both countries have extended airspace closures by issuing NOTAMs on a monthly basis. While the two countries have banned each other’s airlines and aircraft, their respective airspaces remain open for overflying by airlines from other countries.

Pakistan issued its latest NOTAM extending the airspace closure a week before the November 24 expiration of the earlier notice. India’s current ban on Pakistani aircraft is also set to expire on November 24, and Indian aviation authorities are expected to issue a new NOTAM to extend the ban by another month before that.

Approximately 800 weekly flights operated by Indian airlines have been affected due to the closure of Pakistan’s airspace. These flights, which typically travel from North India to destinations like West Asia, the Caucasus, Europe, the UK, and eastern North America, are being forced to take longer routes. This leads to several operational challenges like increased flight durations with journeys extended by anywhere from 15 minutes to several hours depending on the distance and location of the destination, in addition to higher fuel consumption and increased complexity in crew and flight scheduling. Ultimately, these factors contribute to a rise in operational costs for the airlines.

Last month, Tata group airline Air India wrote to the Indian government seeking its help to convince China to let the carrier use a sensitive military airspace zone in Xinjiang to shorten routes in view of the financial toll from the Pakistani airspace closure. Air India airline estimates that the Pakistani airspace closure could cost it around Rs 4,000 crore on an annualised basis, it is learnt.

In contrast, the impact of India’s airspace closure has been rather insignificant on Pakistan as Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), the country’s flag carrier, has a limited international presence and is currently struggling, unlike India’s rapidly expanding aviation sector and airlines. According to data from aviation analytics company Cirium, only about six PIA flights per week—those traveling between Kuala Lumpur and Lahore or Islamabad—routinely flew over India before these airspace closures took effect in April.

For Indian airlines, the situation is quite different. All major Indian carriers operate international flights to countries west of India, and many of these previously overflew Pakistan, even though none of them have flights to destinations in Pakistan. Air India serves destinations across West Asia, Europe, the UK, and North America. IndiGo flies to West Asia, Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, and has mounted flights to Europe in recent months. With the closure of the Pakistani airspace, IndiGo was forced to suspend flights from Delhi to the Central Asian cities of Almaty and Tashkent because these routes were beyond the operational range of its narrow-body aircraft fleet. Air India Express, Akasa Air, and SpiceJet also operate international flights, primarily to West Asia.

According to data from Cirium, almost 400 weekly international departures from North Indian airports have been impacted due to Pakistan’s ban. These westward flights from airports like Delhi, Amritsar, Jaipur, and Lucknow traditionally flew over Pakistan. Considering that all these flights also have return legs, the total number of affected flights on a weekly basis reaches approximately 800.

The financial implications for Indian airlines are substantial. When Pakistan previously closed its airspace for over four months in 2019, Indian carriers collectively incurred estimated losses of around Rs 700 crore. These costs were primarily due to increased fuel expenses and operational difficulties resulting from the longer routes they were forced to take. Air India was the most severely affected Indian carrier at that time, as it operated more west-bound international flights and was, and remains, the sole Indian airline with ultra-long-haul services to North America.

But in recent years, other Indian airlines, particularly IndiGo, have also expanded their international networks, utilising their existing fleets of narrow-body jets to serve various destinations. Notably, IndiGo is the only Indian airline that operates flights to Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey.