India’s air passenger growth may outpace China’s from 2026; likely to be fastest-growing major aviation market over next 3 decades

Nevertheless, ACI’s long-term projections show that China is likely to overtake the US as the world’s largest aviation market by passenger numbers by 2053. India, despite the expected faster growth, is likely to maintain its position as the world’s third-largest aviation market over the next 30 years. The relatively high base of flyers in the US and China means that even with lower rates of growth than India’s, the aviation markets of these two giants will still be larger even 30 years down the line.

According to ACI’s short-term projections till 2027, India’s air passenger growth in 2026 is seen at 10.5 per cent, higher than China’s 8.9 per cent for that year. For 2027, India’s growth rate is pegged at 10.3 per cent, while that of China is seen at 7.2 per cent. While the two aviation markets’ respective growth rates for 2024 were identical at 7.1 per cent, China’s is projected to be 12 per cent for 2025, higher than 10.1 per cent projected for India. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of India’s air passenger traffic for 2023-2027 is pegged at 9.5 per cent, higher than the projection of 8.8 per cent for China.

PROJECTED AIR PASSENGER GROWTH RATE (%)

As for the long-term forecast, ACI expects the CAGR of India’s air passenger traffic at 5.5 per cent, identical to that of Indonesia, a relatively smaller market. The CAGR of all other major aviation markets is expected to be lower than that, with that of China pegged at 3.8 per cent. Others in the list of the 10 likely fastest-growing major aviation markets over the next three decades include Vietnam (projected CAGR: 4.6 per cent), the Philippines (4.5 per cent), Saudi Arabia (4.5 per cent), Thailand (4.3 per cent), Qatar (4.2 per cent), Egypt (4 per cent), and the UAE (3.8 per cent).

“Why India is moving faster than China in the short term…this is because India is a market that is developing and is in the process of enhancing its infrastructure, and also in the process of enhancing its supply side,” said Stefano Baronci, Director General of ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East. He added that India’s propensity for air travel on a per capita basis is significantly lower than many other large aviation markets, including China.

According to the ACI, yearly trips per capita for India stood at 0.1 per cent in 2023 against China’s 0.5 trips per capita. The number for the US, on the other hand, was a much higher 2.1 trips. As per the airports body’s 2043 projections, India’s yearly trips per capita are pegged at 0.4 in that year, again significantly lower than other major aviation markets. According to industry watchers, given the upside potential for greater penetration of civil aviation in India’s mammoth population base, the country has bright prospects as a long-term growth engine for the global aviation industry.