The US-Iran stand-off is wrapped in a “fog of uncertainty”. No one really knows what will happen but what we do know, based on our reading of Clausewitz and understanding of history, is that it could take no more than a false report, a miscalculation or simply an accident for the region to conflagrate into violent conflict.
Washington has re-imposed tough sanctions on Iran since President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 nuclear accord, which lifted sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear programme.
US President Donald Trump on Monday targeted Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials with sanctions, increasing pressure on Iran after Iranian forces shot down an unmanned American drone.
Speaking in Washington on Saturday before heading to the US presidential retreat at Camp David, Trump indicated the government was taking a diplomatic path to put pressure on Tehran by moving to impose new sanctions.
US President Donald Trump has been briefed on the issue, the White House said today. Washington has also accused Tehran of being behind a similar incident on May 12. Four tankers were attacked in the same, vital oil shipping route.
Zarif said a so-called "B-team," including Trump's national security adviser John Bolton, an ardent Iran hawk, and conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could goad Trump into a conflict with Tehran.