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 When the focus shifts from the contest within the parties to the general election, the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates always drift towards the centre. In winning the nomination, the Democratic candidates need to bear to the left and the Republicans to the right in order to consolidate their core constituencies, but once they win the nomination, the direction changes. It was no surprise, then, that the Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama and the Republican candidate, Senator John McCain have been busy reinventing themselves to win the prized swing voters in the middle.

What is surprising, however, has been the scope and pace of Obama’s dash to the centre-ground. On a whole range of issues, Obama has defied the very liberal sentiment in his party that allowed him to defeat the powerful machine of the Clintons.

On the Iraq war, which is so vehemently opposed by the liberals, Obama has repositioned himself. After promising, during the primaries, a rapid withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, he now says he will decide the schedule only after reviewing the situation and consulting with the US military leadership.

In an effort to win over the influential Jewish-American vote, Obama has already promised unconditional and absolute support to the Israeli positions vis-a-vis the Palestinians. No more ambiguity about where he stands in the Middle East.

Obama has also extended strong support to President George Bush’s ‘faith-based initiatives’ (much reviled by secular liberals) that encourage religious groups to promote social welfare with government funds. On gun control, demanded vociferously by the liberals and opposed with equal ferocity by the conservatives, Obama has moved to the right. He supported a recent Supreme Court decision overturning the ban on hand guns imposed by the local government in Washington DC. Not surprisingly American progressives are stunned by Obama’s about-face on important issues. Obama, however, appears secure in the knowledge that the liberals have nowhere else to go in this election. Obama also knows that it more dangerous to be called a ‘liberal’ rather than a ‘flip-flopper’. In quickly pre-empting the potential lines of attack by the Republicans and making himself attractive to the American mainstream, Obama is turning out to be a sophisticated politician.

Concert of democracies

Although the Democrats loathe President Bush’s foreign policy, they agree with him on one important issue — the promotion of democracy abroad. It was Bush’s predecessor, Bill Clinton, who launched the Community of Democracies in the year 2000. Bush, in turn, launched the United Nations Democracy Fund and wanted to inject democracy into the Middle East.

Both McCain and Obama now speak to the same theme in different ways. McCain wants to build a powerful new global ‘league of democracies’. Obama’s foreign policy team has the same idea, but their preferred term is ‘concert of democracies’.

Underlying both is the notion that major democracies must get together to manage the world. Both camps recognise the importance of expanding this league/concert beyond the traditional transatlantic structures of NATO. Both want to draw in Asian democracies like Japan, India and Australia.

Sceptics, however, suggest that grand projects like these rarely survive the heat of policy-making. Most administrations, both Republican and Democratic, end up with pro forma initiatives on democracy promotion.

Calling India lobby

Whether we like it or not, India might soon be sucked into American electoral politics. This involvement will not be about choosing one candidate over the other, but mobilising both Democrats and Republicans to facilitate an early implementation of the nuclear deal.

If Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s hopes for a quick endorsement of the civil nuclear initiative by the IAEA and the NSG are realised, the action will shift immediately to Washington for the last act of this prolonged drama. After the IAEA and NSG act, Bush will waste no time in sending the 123 agreement to the US Congress for its approval. Getting the Congress to act in the few weeks that it plans to work in September will require an extraordinary political effort. That will indeed be the moment of truth for the much acclaimed India lobby in Washington.

The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohan@ntu.edu.sg