Message is the fight

The intensity of the car bomb attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul, with a loss of over 40 lives, makes it the worst attack in Afghanistan’s capital since the ousting of the Taliban. The significance of Afghan visa seekers to India amongst the dead is no less tragic than the loss of highly competent and experienced Indian diplomats. The message is directed as much against those cooperating with or seeking to develop interests with India, as against India’s carefully projected soft power presence in Afghanistan. Its implications are both immediate and far-reaching.

There is no denying that the Taliban has strengthened its control in Afghanistan. What is more, it has demonstrated this year its ability to choose and attack targets at will in Kabul. Even if the writ of the Karzai government, as claimed by his critics, extends only to Kabul, the series of daring and innovatively planned attacks this year are evidence of a new state of power play in Afghanistan. President Karzai himself narrowly escaped being assassinated earlier this year. The attacks and casualties on the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have increased. The attack on its embassy shows an emerging pattern of a new front being opened against India.

Opposition from Pakistan to an Indian influence in Afghanistan is not new. Its history — with twists and turns through five decades — is well-known. Afghanistan was claimed as Pakistan’s strategic depth against India. That Pakistan was allowed to provide strategic depth for the Taliban and al-Qaeda is also part of acknowledged history. The post-9/11 denouement, in which the Taliban and al-Qaeda have found refuge in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, is due to their being considered strategic assets by Islamabad. Their sustenance and availability for regaining its former influence in Afghanistan are defining elements in Pakistan’s policy. A growing Indian presence in a stable, democratic Afghanistan works against these interests.

The attack is thus part of the competition between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan. India’s interests in continuing to maintain a relationship with elements of the Northern Alliance are an aggravating factor in Pakistan and the Taliban’s perspectives. Its aid projects in Afghanistan are widely perceived by the public in favourable terms. India is the fifth-largest donor to the country. Its projects cover people-friendly areas like road construction, power transmission, education and health. More importantly,

India looks at Afghanistan as a conduit to the Central Asian states. Its over 200 km road project will link Afghanistan to sea ports in Iran. These are developments with long-term strategic consequences for Pakistan’s Afghan policy.

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