The writer is contributing editor, 'The Indian Express', and senior India analyst, The Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group
We all have a choice — we can either debate evidence, or manufacture conclusions
The incomes of the poorest are rising at a faster pace than any time since January 2015. That could be the reason for Modi winning elections and why the growth slowdown will soon reverse.
Inflation is down by 700 bp since 2013, and policy rates have declined by 200bp — and you are still wondering why GDP growth is slow?
In India we have a monetary authority that admits to not understanding inflation — but persists in damaging an already weak economy because it does not understand it
Average CPI inflation for eight months since September 2016 has been 3.7 per cent. How long are you going to wait and watch, MPC, before you admit that you were wrong in your assessment?
The old elite — politicians, corporates, left-intellectuals, academics — won’t give up their privileges easily. They will try to derail the structural transformation happening in India and object at every turn
It is politics that best explains the phenomena of farmer riots amidst growing prosperity.
One logical way for the MPC to change course and lower rates is by being Keynesian at the June 7 meeting — the facts have changed, so we have changed our mind
Narendra Modi’s tenure thus far has brought about significant structural change in the economy. But the nation needs to be careful about false morality and cow vigilantism
The inflation forecast is the most important aspect of the most crucial economic decision that the RBI makes — it needs to be more in tune with reality.
PM Modi has nothing to gain and everything to lose by pursuing a divisive social agenda. He has to worry both about the enemy within, and the one outside, his development tent.
A ‘rate hike in time is just fine’ is a wise RBI saying. With CPI inflation at near-historic lows, this must mean, according to the RBI law of mean reversion, that the future will bring high inflation. Hence, the urgent need for intervention
Many expect the Uttar Pradesh election to go the Bihar way — a big loss for BJP. However, the same math suggests the BJP is likely to win a comfortable majority in the state
RBI’s obstinate refusal to cut policy rates, and the moving of its policy stance from neutral to accommodative, is not based on economic logic. Both headline and core inflation data argue for a rate cut
Budget 2017-18 is probably the most brilliant economic and political document since the path-breaking budget of 1991
A meaningful reduction in effective corporate tax rates to around 20 per cent is the correct follow-through to the logic, and pain, of demonetisation.
The finance minister can cut everyone’s tax burden, even pay the poor, and be revenue neutral by cutting sops
The economy provides scope and demonetisation, the rationale for a flat income tax rate and a negative income tax for the poor and the needy.
A political and economic masterstroke would be for the Union budget to contain a basic income scheme for the bottom 50 percent — the poor and lower middle class
Make no mistake — demonetisation is an important first step in what will be remembered as India’s biggest reform.
Conservative intellectual rightness is no different from classic liberal thought, a definition that excludes the Left intellectuals, but includes the Right liberals
Politicians shouting shrill about demonetisation augur well for the prospects of a new demonetised India. It indicates that the initiative is working
Rumours of even a 1 percentage point decline in GDP growth for 2016/17 are vastly exaggerated, have no basis in logic or fact.
The constitution emphasises the power of the state, not the rights of individuals. Yet it is a lot more liberal than the interpretation of Supreme Court justices suggests.
Ideologies are determining politicians’ assessment of the costs of the policy. Amid the commotion, food prices have been stable
Demonetisation will have no benefits if the government does not follow up with tax reforms, reduce discretionary powers of bureaucrats and reform election laws
The recent anti-corruption, anti-black money drive of the BJP is being characterised by the same intellectually old people as being against the interests of the poor.
The long wait will soon be over. As everyone has noted, this is not an ordinary election. The future of Western civilisation (literally) depends on the outcome.
In a race that is considered too close to call (for over three months now — see table) the “lying factor” can make any forecast of a Clinton victory go wrong.
Their ‘nationalism’ tests are offensive. Exchanges of culture are what bind together the twins separated at birth.
When even Pakistan has banned triple talaq, our ‘liberals’ argue the uniform civil code should not be introduced until India solves all problems related to women — nay, all problems related to womankind.
In making the decision to cut the repo rate by 25 bps, the Monetary Policy Committee was neither dovish, nor hawkish, just pragmatic.
The opinion polls suggest that whites will vote for Trump in the same proportion as they did for Reagan in 1964. Is that even probable, let alone likely?
The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) is to be replaced by the Monetary Policy Committee. Let’s hope it can do a better job
No matter what the criteria, inflation has dropped, and dropped by a large magnitude, during Raghuram Rajan’s tenure as RBI governor, September 2013 to September 2016.
The odds are so much in her favour that Trump might eventually withdraw from the race. Barring a Black Swan event, it is Clinton in November.
Tamilian author Perumal Murugan has now come out with his new book in Tamil "Kozhaiyin Padalgal" ("Songs of a Coward"). It speaks of the period when the writer was fighting a battle, both internally as well as with the external forces.