surjit-s-bhalla

Surjit S Bhalla

The writer is contributing editor, 'The Indian Express', and senior India analyst, The Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group

No proof required: A double-digit win for Hillary Clinton
Tue, Sep 27, 2016

The opinion polls suggest that whites will vote for Trump in the same proportion as they did for Reagan in 1964. Is that even probable, let alone likely?

No proof required: Blind men in search of inflation
Sat, Sep 17, 2016

The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) is to be replaced by the Monetary Policy Committee. Let’s hope it can do a better job

No proof required: Evaluating Rajan
Sat, Aug 13, 2016

No matter what the criteria, inflation has dropped, and dropped by a large magnitude, during Raghuram Rajan’s tenure as RBI governor, September 2013 to September 2016.

Hillary Clinton by a landslide
Sat, Aug 06, 2016

The odds are so much in her favour that Trump might eventually withdraw from the race. Barring a Black Swan event, it is Clinton in November.

No proof required: Black Knight and other myths
Sat, Jul 23, 2016

The Congress’ huge and unexpected defeat in the 2014 general election may contain the foundations for some popular myths

No proof required: Good morality is good politics
Sat, Jul 16, 2016

Here are some facts that can help Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP take the plunge into being a political party that people might like to like, rather than a party that people love to hate.

Debate on Rajan’s reappointment is welcome as long as it is on performance
Sat, Jun 11, 2016

It is high time for all of us to get real, recognise and reward Raghuram Rajan for a job brilliantly done

Evaluating Narendra Modi’s two years of governance
Sat, May 28, 2016

If Monsoon 2016 is as expected, then the first three years of the Modi government will be the best three years for India’s economy since 1996, and possibly the best three consecutive years since Independence

Burying the ghost of Bihar
Sat, May 21, 2016

Assembly poll results prove voter is focused on development, not dynasty or caste and creed math

No proof required: End of the road for Congress?
Mon, May 16, 2016

If the party and its allies lose in all four state elections, as opinion polls predict, the political dialogue will shift towards discussing the end of the Congress era

Retail inflation is overstated
Sat, May 07, 2016

After adjustment, consumer price index-based inflation in 2015-16 was 3.8 per cent — a full 1.10 percentage points below the official estimate of 4.9 per cent.

Odd-even scheme: AAP has to first clarify on surge prices for buses
Wed, Apr 27, 2016

Those who pay exorbitant surge prices for buses for 13 days should not object to occasional surge pricing by taxi aggregators.

No proof required- GDP debate: RIP
Sat, Apr 23, 2016

Now that the new GDP data have implicitly received the RBI good housekeeping seal of approval, perhaps we can all move on to more challenging appraisals of the Indian economy

No proof required: Fadnavis everywhere, and no water to drink
Sat, Apr 09, 2016

The IPL water controversy proves that common sense is least common, especially in the ‘moral’ space occupied by TV anchors and politicians

Narendra Modi’s ghar wapsi and the return of vikas
Sat, Mar 26, 2016

By not responding to extreme provocation by Congress, BJP is showing that it is learning to lead.

No Proof Required: The best government for fiscal discipline
Sat, Mar 12, 2016

Budget 2016-17 should be regarded as perhaps the best budget since 1996. The BJP’s surprisingly good fiscal performance in 2014 and 2015 suggests that achhe din are here

Fiddling while Rome is built
Fri, Mar 04, 2016

Aadhaar bill is one of the most transformative economic reforms ever. But does anyone care?

No Proof Required: Believe it, GDP data is right
Mon, Feb 22, 2016

Those who have seriously questioned it owe an apology to the CSO for doubting its authenticity and the integrity of the statisticians

No Proof Required: Deconstruction of a crime
Fri, Feb 19, 2016

Students, or anybody else for that matter, should be allowed to pontificate, as long as it doesn’t involve a crime — and mere words don’t constitute one.

No proof required: MGNREGA does not help poor
Sat, Feb 06, 2016

The poverty debate in India needs to focus more on helping the poor, than projecting a bleeding heart at their plight.

Take Piketty with a pinch
Sat, Jan 23, 2016

While entirely appropriate for developed economies with good tax data, the Piketty method of estimating income distribution is entirely inappropriate for developing economies with bad tax data.

No Proof Required: Jaago, aur jaagte raho
Fri, Dec 18, 2015

GDP price deflator is negative. So why can’t the RBI cut rates?

No proof required: Incredible ‘Intolerant’ India
Sat, Nov 28, 2015

I further felt that this would be a healthy development, given that it would replace the elite with a feudal, dynastic mindset with an elite with a middle-class mindset.

No proof required: No time for caste reservations
Sat, Nov 21, 2015

In a perceptive article in another newspaper, Baijayant “Jay” Panda, MP from Odisha, observed that there seemed to be an upsurge in “issues before the electorate” prior to the recent state elections.

No Proof Required – Bihar elections: what happened and why
Sat, Nov 14, 2015

It was a lousy campaign. The BJP, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah ignore this reality at their peril.

No Proof Required: Spot the difference between Delhi and Bihar elections
Thu, Nov 05, 2015

Can we please not pursue lazy journalism and even lazier analysis by chasing the theme of caste-based voting? If forced to make a point estimate, I would say 175 seats for JDU+ and 60 seats for NDA.

No proof required: Confessions of a self-styled liberal
Sat, Oct 17, 2015

Modi knows that the liberati media is gunning for him. Then why give them a beefy opportunity?

No proof required: Guns, laws and sacred cows
Sat, Oct 10, 2015

An Islamic or Jewish nation can prohibit the killing of pigs. A Hindu nation can prohibit the killing of cows. A secular nation can do neither.

No proof required: Central bank governor, a no-mistake job
Sat, Sep 26, 2015

Given long and variable lags, unknown base effects, and confounding inflation expectations, can a monetary official ever get a policy action wrong?

GDP growth: Over to the RBI
Sat, Sep 12, 2015

A necessary condition for GDP growth to accelerate beyond 7 per cent per annum is for the RBI to cut rates aggressively

No proof required: Numbers don’t lie-people do
Sat, Sep 05, 2015

‘If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it’: Goebbels.

Census, Christians, Conversions
Tue, Sep 01, 2015

Despite having the highest level of female education and the lowest fertility rate, why is the Christian population growth rate the same as that of the average Indian?

No proof required: Why inflation fell
Wed, Aug 26, 2015

The RBI should screen each contender for the MPC with a simple question — how do you explain the past determinants, and the future trend, of inflation in India?

No proof required: Sons, daughters, class
Tue, Aug 18, 2015

Prior to the advent of Modi’s “unscrupulous doctors” practising abortion of the girl foetus, Indian parents had enforced a son-preference society through neglect or infanticide of the girl child.

Deconstructing inflation
Sat, Aug 08, 2015

The central bank continues to misread the situation because it persists in using year-on-year data.

Now will Congress pass GST?
Sat, Aug 01, 2015

The BJP has the ammunition to pass the GST bill — most importantly, the promise of a revenue neutral GST tax rate of 11 per cent, which a task force set up by the Congress had first proposed in 2009