The writer is contributing editor, 'The Indian Express', and senior India analyst, The Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group
The inflation forecast is the most important aspect of the most crucial economic decision that the RBI makes — it needs to be more in tune with reality.
PM Modi has nothing to gain and everything to lose by pursuing a divisive social agenda. He has to worry both about the enemy within, and the one outside, his development tent.
A ‘rate hike in time is just fine’ is a wise RBI saying. With CPI inflation at near-historic lows, this must mean, according to the RBI law of mean reversion, that the future will bring high inflation. Hence, the urgent need for intervention
Many expect the Uttar Pradesh election to go the Bihar way — a big loss for BJP. However, the same math suggests the BJP is likely to win a comfortable majority in the state
RBI’s obstinate refusal to cut policy rates, and the moving of its policy stance from neutral to accommodative, is not based on economic logic. Both headline and core inflation data argue for a rate cut
Budget 2017-18 is probably the most brilliant economic and political document since the path-breaking budget of 1991
A meaningful reduction in effective corporate tax rates to around 20 per cent is the correct follow-through to the logic, and pain, of demonetisation.
The finance minister can cut everyone’s tax burden, even pay the poor, and be revenue neutral by cutting sops
The economy provides scope and demonetisation, the rationale for a flat income tax rate and a negative income tax for the poor and the needy.
A political and economic masterstroke would be for the Union budget to contain a basic income scheme for the bottom 50 percent — the poor and lower middle class
Make no mistake — demonetisation is an important first step in what will be remembered as India’s biggest reform.
Conservative intellectual rightness is no different from classic liberal thought, a definition that excludes the Left intellectuals, but includes the Right liberals
Politicians shouting shrill about demonetisation augur well for the prospects of a new demonetised India. It indicates that the initiative is working
Rumours of even a 1 percentage point decline in GDP growth for 2016/17 are vastly exaggerated, have no basis in logic or fact.
The constitution emphasises the power of the state, not the rights of individuals. Yet it is a lot more liberal than the interpretation of Supreme Court justices suggests.
Ideologies are determining politicians’ assessment of the costs of the policy. Amid the commotion, food prices have been stable
Demonetisation will have no benefits if the government does not follow up with tax reforms, reduce discretionary powers of bureaucrats and reform election laws
The recent anti-corruption, anti-black money drive of the BJP is being characterised by the same intellectually old people as being against the interests of the poor.
The long wait will soon be over. As everyone has noted, this is not an ordinary election. The future of Western civilisation (literally) depends on the outcome.
In a race that is considered too close to call (for over three months now — see table) the “lying factor” can make any forecast of a Clinton victory go wrong.
Their ‘nationalism’ tests are offensive. Exchanges of culture are what bind together the twins separated at birth.
When even Pakistan has banned triple talaq, our ‘liberals’ argue the uniform civil code should not be introduced until India solves all problems related to women — nay, all problems related to womankind.
In making the decision to cut the repo rate by 25 bps, the Monetary Policy Committee was neither dovish, nor hawkish, just pragmatic.
The opinion polls suggest that whites will vote for Trump in the same proportion as they did for Reagan in 1964. Is that even probable, let alone likely?
The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) is to be replaced by the Monetary Policy Committee. Let’s hope it can do a better job
No matter what the criteria, inflation has dropped, and dropped by a large magnitude, during Raghuram Rajan’s tenure as RBI governor, September 2013 to September 2016.
The odds are so much in her favour that Trump might eventually withdraw from the race. Barring a Black Swan event, it is Clinton in November.
The Congress’ huge and unexpected defeat in the 2014 general election may contain the foundations for some popular myths
Here are some facts that can help Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP take the plunge into being a political party that people might like to like, rather than a party that people love to hate.
It is high time for all of us to get real, recognise and reward Raghuram Rajan for a job brilliantly done
If Monsoon 2016 is as expected, then the first three years of the Modi government will be the best three years for India’s economy since 1996, and possibly the best three consecutive years since Independence
Assembly poll results prove voter is focused on development, not dynasty or caste and creed math
If the party and its allies lose in all four state elections, as opinion polls predict, the political dialogue will shift towards discussing the end of the Congress era
After adjustment, consumer price index-based inflation in 2015-16 was 3.8 per cent — a full 1.10 percentage points below the official estimate of 4.9 per cent.
Those who pay exorbitant surge prices for buses for 13 days should not object to occasional surge pricing by taxi aggregators.
Now that the new GDP data have implicitly received the RBI good housekeeping seal of approval, perhaps we can all move on to more challenging appraisals of the Indian economy