The writer is contributing editor, 'The Indian Express', and senior India analyst, The Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group
LTCG is a bad idea. The best policy for the taxman is one that maximises revenue, not one that maximises his morality, or his employment, or discretionary powers
Tax buoyancy has helped the government to budget for schemes that make transfer of revenues to the bottom third of the population possible. There was no reason for the long-term capital gains tax
India can, and must, reform its welfare system. More efficient redistribution is desirable for ethical and political reasons
The implied savings estimates for India, derived from his calculations of income distribution, do not conform to any known model of savings behaviour
A direct outcome of demonetisation is a sharp increase in 2017-18 in tax buoyancy (revenues per unit of growth). Given this ‘unexpected’ result, will the knee-jerk critics of demonetisation please stand down?
It is on course for high growth, low inflation, lower taxation, increased income support for the needy. And declining inequality.
This election was the first since slow economic growth was apparent and in the data. A slow economy, however, was not the only factor — after all, in Himachal Pradesh (HP), the BJP won by a large margin.
For whom will the election bells toll -- a confident BJP or a reviving Congress? The opinion polls suggest that this may not be a Rahul Gandhi moment.
Here is a modest proposal to bring about much-needed accountability to the decisions of the RBI (and MPC): Let the RBI governor be questioned by Parliament twice a year
The first year of operation of the Monetary Policy Committee has imposed considerable costs on the economy with very few benefits. What explains its decisions?
A forthcoming book explains that inflation, which haunted the world in the Seventies and the Eighties, is now only a windmill to be tilted at
It was about both politics and economics. It is an acknowledged political success and early ‘returns’ indicate an economic success story as well.
Surveys on hunger suggest that like poverty, it is more a relative, than absolute, concept. The best policy to increase nutrition is via sanitation and clean water
We all have a choice — we can either debate evidence, or manufacture conclusions
The incomes of the poorest are rising at a faster pace than any time since January 2015. That could be the reason for Modi winning elections and why the growth slowdown will soon reverse.
Inflation is down by 700 bp since 2013, and policy rates have declined by 200bp — and you are still wondering why GDP growth is slow?
In India we have a monetary authority that admits to not understanding inflation — but persists in damaging an already weak economy because it does not understand it
Average CPI inflation for eight months since September 2016 has been 3.7 per cent. How long are you going to wait and watch, MPC, before you admit that you were wrong in your assessment?
The old elite — politicians, corporates, left-intellectuals, academics — won’t give up their privileges easily. They will try to derail the structural transformation happening in India and object at every turn
It is politics that best explains the phenomena of farmer riots amidst growing prosperity.
One logical way for the MPC to change course and lower rates is by being Keynesian at the June 7 meeting — the facts have changed, so we have changed our mind
Narendra Modi’s tenure thus far has brought about significant structural change in the economy. But the nation needs to be careful about false morality and cow vigilantism
The inflation forecast is the most important aspect of the most crucial economic decision that the RBI makes — it needs to be more in tune with reality.
PM Modi has nothing to gain and everything to lose by pursuing a divisive social agenda. He has to worry both about the enemy within, and the one outside, his development tent.
A ‘rate hike in time is just fine’ is a wise RBI saying. With CPI inflation at near-historic lows, this must mean, according to the RBI law of mean reversion, that the future will bring high inflation. Hence, the urgent need for intervention
Many expect the Uttar Pradesh election to go the Bihar way — a big loss for BJP. However, the same math suggests the BJP is likely to win a comfortable majority in the state
RBI’s obstinate refusal to cut policy rates, and the moving of its policy stance from neutral to accommodative, is not based on economic logic. Both headline and core inflation data argue for a rate cut
Budget 2017-18 is probably the most brilliant economic and political document since the path-breaking budget of 1991
A meaningful reduction in effective corporate tax rates to around 20 per cent is the correct follow-through to the logic, and pain, of demonetisation.
The finance minister can cut everyone’s tax burden, even pay the poor, and be revenue neutral by cutting sops
The economy provides scope and demonetisation, the rationale for a flat income tax rate and a negative income tax for the poor and the needy.
A political and economic masterstroke would be for the Union budget to contain a basic income scheme for the bottom 50 percent — the poor and lower middle class
Make no mistake — demonetisation is an important first step in what will be remembered as India’s biggest reform.
Conservative intellectual rightness is no different from classic liberal thought, a definition that excludes the Left intellectuals, but includes the Right liberals
Politicians shouting shrill about demonetisation augur well for the prospects of a new demonetised India. It indicates that the initiative is working
Rumours of even a 1 percentage point decline in GDP growth for 2016/17 are vastly exaggerated, have no basis in logic or fact.
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