Why results in Uttar Pradesh signals new politics, and a new voter

UP is seen as — and it sees itself as — India’s heartland. All the main faultlines of India’s politics, along the axes of caste, class and community, are etched here.

Written by Vandita Mishra | New Delhi | Updated: March 12, 2017 9:27 am
Uttar Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, Uttar Pradesh assembly election results 2017, Narendra Modi, BJP, Bharatiya Janata Party, UP politics, india news Celebrations at the BJP’s UP headquarters in Lucknow after the unprecedented victory in the assembly election, Saturday. Tashi Tobgyal

IN the five state elections in this round, Narendra Modi’s BJP has swept two, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, propelled itself into the game for government-formation for the first time in Manipur and may even have another shot at Goa. In Punjab, it was the junior partner to the Akali Dal in the ruling alliance that was routed. With its performance, it has all but sealed the Presidential election in July, assured itself of a more favourable Rajya Sabha math later and reworked the balance of power to its advantage ahead of the next Parliamentary contest in 2019.

But it is the BJP’s historic victory in Uttar Pradesh — almost 80% of its 403 seats — that will resonate the most. For, UP is not just another state. It is the state that has seen the rise of regional parties, yet not witnessed the politics of regionalism.

UP is seen as — and it sees itself as — India’s heartland. All the main faultlines of India’s politics, along the axes of caste, class and community, are etched here. It has been the staging ground for all the large national movements and trends: Congress dominance upto the mid 1960s; the rise of opposition forces, including the Socialists, and the emergence of non-Congress governments; the return of the Congress to power in the 1980s, this time in a far more competitive space, in which kisan politics was yielding to caste-based mobilisations.

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In the 1990s, UP became the primary site for the unfolding of three national projects — Mandal, Mandir and Market. These were essentially homogenising programmes, but through the ‘90s, they confronted, and collided with, each other in ways that caused intense political fragmentation — of the electorate and of the state’s party system: In 10 years, UP saw four elections, eight governments were formed and there was president’s rule on three occasions.

 

Read | Next on Amit Shah’s table: 120 Lok Sabha seats where BJP is hardly present

The first intimations that the period of instability was coming to an end, or that the UP voter was now preparing to trust one party with a decisive verdict, across the several faultlines, came in 2007 when the BSP won a single-party majority, the first since 1985. It came again when the SP won a large mandate in 2012.

Now the Modi-Amit Shah BJP’s sweep confirms that what UP is seeing is a new phase of politics that builds on Mandal and Mandir but cannot be fully explained by them. And that under Modi and his trusted lieutenant, the BJP is adapting to it most deftly and successfully — it is setting the agenda, certainly, but, more than that, it is becoming what the people want it to be.

Travelling in UP to track Campaign 2017 was to sense the clamour of caste and community loyalties and discontents, but also the voter’s disillusion and exasperation with the narrower agenda and the older antagonism. And her striving to climb out of her corner, to participate in a larger canvas or idea, and indeed, to take a selfie while doing so. It was also to see the BJP respond to this yearning by framing a more vivid and more layered appeal than any of its rivals could come up with.

At the local level, the BJP pitched its tent wider by playing an older, hard-nosed caste game — astutely picking a large number of its candidates from the large scatter of non-Yadav OBC castes, for instance, to add them to its traditional upper caste Brahmin-Thakur mix.

Read | Modi plus Mandal plus Kamandal plus

It also, and as before, bid for Hindu consolidation — just like in 2014, it did not give a single ticket to Muslims. It allowed free play to those like Yogi Adityanath, and especially to him (the MP from Gorakhpur, most known for his talk of “anti-romeo squads” and “love jihad” and for working up a state of permanent religious polarisation in his bastion in eastern UP, addressed many more rallies for his party across the state than in any previous election), party president Amit Shah labelled his rivals KASAB and promised to shut down all slaughter houses and Modi himself spoke of “kabristan” vs “shamshan.”

But that was not all there was to the strategy of the Modi-BJP. In the campaign for UP in 2017, the BJP, or rather Modi, also successfully propelled himself into a space that rose above the divisions on the ground. He had done it earlier in 2014 by projecting himself as an agent of change against the jaded UPA regime in the Centre, relegating the memories and ghosts of Gujarat 2002. In this election in UP, his feat was even more remarkable than in 2014 — on two counts.

Read | Uttar Pradesh assembly election results 2017: SP, BSP lose strongholds too

Even after heading a government at the Centre for nearly three years, Modi was able to, helped by imaginative schemes like the opening of Jan Dhan accounts for the poor, and free gas connections for those in the BPL list under the Ujjwala scheme, capture the plank of “parivartan” or change in UP, at a time when new communication technologies are opening up larger worlds, making voters more impatient, and quickening their aspirations.

And, second, he was able to project demonetisation, or notebandi, a disruptive decision, as a big overarching idea that they must support for the greater good. Across the state, voters said that despite the evident economic distress it had caused, demonetisation was “desh ke hit mein”, or in the national interest. They saw it as something that affected everyone, as a leveller that had brought about “barabari”, placing on an equal footing the poor and the rich.

Read | UP election results 2017: The Chief Minister hopefuls

It did not matter that there was little evidence to back those claims. What was evident was that the BJP had successfully framed something that was causing economic discomfort as an anti-corruption and pro-poor programme, and also a patriotic-nationalist one. For those who still did not drop their disbelief vis a vis notebandi, it had simply become politically incorrect to say so.

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In the end, Modi and Shah crafted the most multi-tonal agenda in the state that was able to rise above the appeals to caste and religion, even as it folded them in. On the other hand, his rivals’ broader planks, be it Akhilesh Yadav’s “vikas” or Mayawati’s image of being a good administrator, were unable to lift much above their narrower appeals to their respective caste and community bases.

Read | Tracking UP election results in Varanasi: ‘You have to gather yourself to fight the next battle’

Why did Modi succeed where his rivals failed? That is the question that the SP and the BSP must now ask themselves in UP. Why did the politics of “social justice” and “secularism” that both the SP and BSP, and the Congress, have made into their calling card over the years, mutate into progressively shrinking platforms lacking in conviction? Modi was successfully able to label “social justice” as “casteism”, even as his party made a more pronounced bid for backward caste support. He was also able to deride “secularism” as “appeasement”, while inviting the voter to participate in an idea and project ostensibly more encompassing.

Modi’s UP success is made up of the remarkable inventiveness of a leader in his political prime, tirelessly upping his game. It is also made up of the inability of his political opponents to keep pace — either with him or with the people. As one voter in eastern UP put it, “Rahul ji tez kam hain (Rahul is not quick enough)”. She could as well have been speaking of Akhilesh Yadav or Mayawati.

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First Published on: March 12, 2017 5:34 am
  1. M
    Michellegt;Vedicgt;human
    Mar 12, 2017 at 4:03 am
    This what is called NAMO-NETISED,----TSU-NAMO and MODI-FIED,---if EC calls for a DELHI election right now it will be NAMO all the way 101%,----sir MODIJI Ki JAI HO,---JAI HIND
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    1. M
      MyTake
      Mar 12, 2017 at 6:59 am
      Next target should be to match China within next 10 years working with all the democratic regimes of the world. lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;India should be one of major anchor points of democracy in this part of the world and that itself should give the required thrust.
      Reply
      1. H
        Harikrishnan
        Mar 12, 2017 at 6:50 am
        Dear Misra, you think the electorate of UP was stupid enough to over see your expert opinion that the Demontisation was anti-poor? No wonder you have ended up as columinist thining that your opinion as "God given" and is hardly bothered about democracy or what they people think. Ever opposition political party and the media was supportive of the currect election as a litmus test for demonetization. Atleast the politicians said that it is not, and not like you thinking that the electorate is stupid.
        Reply
        1. A
          ashok Ashok
          Mar 12, 2017 at 2:18 am
          What is all this talk about politics rising above caste ? Amit Shah chose non yadav obc, Brahmins, and Thakurs, and no muslim candidates. OK so one particular polarisation has worked in one election. That does not mean it will work elsewhere or even in the same place after a few years.
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          1. B
            Brahm Gaur
            Mar 12, 2017 at 4:23 am
            Har Har Modilt;br/gt;Modi Jindabadlt;br/gt;Uttar Pradesh Jindabadlt;br/gt;Uttrakhand Zindabadlt;br/gt;Sab Ka Saath Sabka Vikaslt;br/gt;Jai Hind
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            1. R
              Rajendra Babu
              Mar 14, 2017 at 11:06 am
              All Logic of BJP victory are null and void. It is the flow of money which dictates winning. Money flowed like ganges from the coffers of Industrialists like Adani , ambanis , Paytm etc. So long the money flows the power of BJP will go leaps and bound. That is why the PM is keen on looking after the business interest of the Industrialists and Media house.
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              1. R
                Rajendra Babu
                Mar 14, 2017 at 11:11 am
                Fully Agree. If there was no quota then Modi would not be PM today
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                1. R
                  Rajendra Babu
                  Mar 14, 2017 at 11:25 am
                  Your hate for Indians following different faiths other than Hindutva is well known. Don't forget that whether Hindu , muslim or christian all have the same DNA at least in South India. Islam came to India even before the death of their prophet,(Kerala) and Christianity came immediately after the death of Christ. (Kerala).Many hindus including royalty adopted the new faith for centuries much before they knew what was North part. I would't say India as the country came into being one during British and thereafter. Before that we had about 500 princely states with own consution and laws. Invariably all muslims are Indians and Patriots and not aliens to this country. To be more precise the dravidians are real Indians and rest came from central asia. So lets not debate who is Indian or nationalist and learn to live in peace and harmony with all Indians regardless of their faith.
                  Reply
                  1. D
                    Dr.Damodar Biswal
                    Mar 12, 2017 at 6:26 am
                    Demonetisation has made the life of the village money lenders n contractors who were sitting with huge black money miserable.That is what the village people love n that is what matters in election.Besides, all those who have black money r scared of spending the same for fear of getting caught n that has kept prices down.All real estate business man r cursing Modi for making their business less profitable.What more do u want?UP people voted for BJP because of demonetisation n sincerity of its leader to work for the people.
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                      Dinesh Singh
                      Mar 12, 2017 at 12:35 am
                      UP win has sealed the Presidential election in July, ured itself of a more favourable Rajya Sabha math later and reworked the balance of power to its advantage ahead of the next Parliamentary contest in 2019.
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                        Dr. Pramod
                        Mar 12, 2017 at 9:44 am
                        First motto- YOU GET EDUCATION OR JOBS ONLY IF YOU PROVE YOUR MERIT. Have given more than 60 years for QUOTA system to rot and divide. The quota only brought those who didn't have merit and thus corruption to fore. Temple isn't going to bring any development. and everybody as an Indian should learn to RESPECT the NATION and not the religion. Follow your religion and laws at your home But they should not above the nation. We, as Indians salute APJ Kalam, the best patriotic of our time and recently Saifulla's Father.
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                        1. D
                          Dr. Pramod
                          Mar 12, 2017 at 10:00 am
                          High time to abolish QUOTA SYSTEM! PROVE your MERIT and get education/job. More than 60 years have been given to this quota system which has rotten our system with corruption because people who didn't have merits snatched somebody else's seat in a good college/job, brought no morale but corruption and gave no standards for upliftment. Next 3 years should see 15% decrease every year in quota system! Let's develop India of MERIT and not a country of substandards- beggars who don't have shame to grab educational seats and jobs in the name of caste and creed.
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                            Dr. Pramod
                            Mar 12, 2017 at 10:12 am
                            We don't expect jihadis to make dialogues but blow themselves and kill innocents. A Maulavi instigating Saifulla's father whom we consider the National Hero, a patriot? Saifulla's Father didn't claim like you- he feels insecure even though his own son was killed for the reason! Last 60 years have been given to you and so-called oppressed communities under the name of quota. You are known for the below: LoveJihad, the Jihad itself? what about Al-Qaeda, Al-Umar-Mujahideen (AUM), Al Badr, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) / Harkat-ul-Ansar (HUA) / Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islami (HUJI), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Indian Mujahideen (IM); Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Islamic State (IS) or Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL);[2]Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM),Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen (JUM).lt;br/gt;So stop crying and migrate to your beloved pak or syria. we don't need you here. Or come into mainstream- be a patriot like Mr. Kalam. Don't preach us.
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                            1. T
                              T DUTTA
                              Mar 12, 2017 at 2:54 am
                              UTTAR PRADESH HAS GIVEN THE UTTAR[answer]
                              Reply
                              1. T
                                T DUTTA
                                Mar 12, 2017 at 2:58 am
                                WILL LOK SABHA ELECTIONS BE PREPONED TO CAPITALISE ON MODI WAVE?
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                                1. S
                                  Shaikh Mohammad
                                  Mar 12, 2017 at 5:49 am
                                  All that modi has done in last 2 years in the development and reforms front are sham. They (BJP) are indistinguishable from other parties that tried and burnt their finger in reforming the ossified British model of governance. Therefore, the development narrative advanced by the protagonists of Modi as argument to explain Modi 's pority is bereft of truth. Modi is very subtle and deceptive in harming the indian Muslims. Under the pale of "sub ka sath, sub ka bikas" it is trying incrementally to erase Muslim ideny, and ruin them economically. Never in the history of independent India Muslims have felt so insecure in respect of keeping their properties secure from gov't confiscation, treating indian citizens as enemy subjects by freak of law and its personal laws under judicial scrutiny and interference under provocation of a handful of divorced women being instigated by vested interests to rebel against the egalitarian and just sharia law.lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;Sent from my Windows 10 phone
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                                  1. S
                                    Shaikh Mohammad
                                    Mar 12, 2017 at 9:48 am
                                    All that modiji has done in last 2 years in the development and reforms front are sham. They (BJP) are indistinguishable from other parties that tried and burnt their fingers in reforming the ossified British model of governance. Not an iota of progress was made in judicial reforms area, except lip service. The RBI has been reduced to a vestige organ, the Indian banks ociation has formed a cartel to cheat customers and the finance ministry calls the shorts in all monetary decisions. A stunt called demonetisation was attempted to hoodwink the uneducated gullible Indians into believing that black money will be eliminated and the promise of a resilient economy in some future date. The RBI has relinquished its role as protectors of consumer interests. Therefore, the development narrative advanced by the protagonists of Modi as argument to explain his pority is bereft of truth. Modi is very subtle and deceptive in harming the indian Muslims. Under the pale of "sub ka sath, sub ka bikas" it is trying incrementally to erase Muslim ideny, and ruin them economically. Never in the history of independent India Muslims have felt so insecure in respect of keeping their properties secure from gov't confiscation, treating indian citizens as enemy subjects by freak of law and its personal laws under judicial scrutiny and interference under provocation of a handful of divorced women being instigated by vested interests to rebel against the egalitarian and just sharia law.
                                    Reply
                                    1. S
                                      Shaikh Mohammad
                                      Mar 12, 2017 at 9:39 am
                                      If development for all is Modi's agenda, that bring Brahmins and lower castes in one platform, try dereservation of st and sc's and see what result follows. You seem to have revulsion for reservation.
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                                      1. S
                                        Shaikh Mohammad
                                        Mar 12, 2017 at 9:46 am
                                        There can be no dialogue with a sick mind.
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                                        1. H
                                          harshad
                                          Mar 12, 2017 at 10:54 am
                                          Correct your facts. Earlier there were quota for SC/ST and BC categories. Culprit is V. P. Singh who implemented recommendation of Mandal commission. V. P. Singh govt was supported by BJP. Don't expect abolition of quota system from Modi. he himself advocated many times in past I am first prime minster from backward caste. (which is not true at all.)
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                                            Truth
                                            Mar 12, 2017 at 5:36 am
                                            In a bid to take over the power of the entire country -"New Politics" indeed from the Gas-Bags of Gujarat - N M, A S, U P, J I O, etc.
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